Sorry, I haven’t been posting much this last week – things at work have been pretty crazy. We hosted a Variety Children’s Charity Event here in Knoxville this week. Jessica Alba and Dane Cook were on hand at a special Tuesday night fund raising screening of GOOD LUCK CHUCK and yours truly had to play red-carpet-lacky (local coverage). Not that opening limo doors for Jessica Alba is tough work! :)

Back to football! We’re hosting Jacksonville this weekend and I’m having a hard time figuring out the Jaguars this year. Kyle mentioned part of this in a comment earlier this week. Here is a team that has posted two very different games. In week one the Jaguars gave up 282 rushing yards, but in week two they limited the Falcons to 82 yards on the ground. In week one Jacksonville’s two-headed running machine (Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew) only gained 48 yards, but in week two they almost doubled that. In week one the Jags held Vince Young to 78 yards passing, but in week two Altanta’s Joey Harrington threw for 200. These widely varying stats throw virtually every 2007 season stat out the window as any of these two game averages don’t really give you an accurate picture of their game play.

So, I think I’ll stick mostly with things I want to see out of our team rather than try to do many match-ups. Let’s take a look…

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The Denver Broncos and Jacksonville Jaguars don’t often find themselves on opposite ends of the field. They’re not in the same division. They haven’t met in the postseason since the 1997 campaign ten years ago. In the last ten years, the teams have played five times – only once in Denver – and split the series 3-2 with Denver having a slight edge.

Yet for some Broncos fans, playing Jacksonville stirs up memories of the worst loss in Broncos history. For some, including me, it’s still personal.

The date was January 4, 1997. The 1996 NFL season saw the Denver Broncos as the AFC’s #1 seed with a 13-3 record and home field advantage wrapped up throughout the playoffs. It looked like John Elway would get another chance at his elusive Super Bowl before retirement.

In came the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team in its second year of existence, to bout with the heavyweight Broncos in a Divisional Round rumble. The Jaguars shocked the Broncos – they blocked our first point after attempt; they held Terrell Davis to the lowest postseason rushing total of his career (91 yards); they scored on six consecutive drives to beat the Broncos 30-27. The 13-3 1996 Broncos, destined for glory, were going home early.

Elway would later call this game the worst loss of his career.

We may have beat them handily in the next year’s playoffs en route to the Super Bowl. Our most recent outing against the Jags turned out to be a solid win, too. But my blood still boils when I see teal, black and gold in Mile High. I remember that day, and how angry and sad and just totally pissed off I was as a teenager. Those feelings stay with you, and so for me, Jacksonville games have always been games worthy of obsession.

With another championship-caliber team taking the field this year, let’s not let the underdog Jaguars catch us off guard. Let’s win, and win handily, and head into Indianapolis next week fully charged and ready to roll.

Another week, another Pick ’ems, and this time Jonathan’s schedule allows him to join me in the party (actually, it’s my fault – we’ve been trying to get both our picks up in one post for your comparison pleasure, and I’m always jumping the gun).

This week I have only two picks against the spread, but I always make my choice before I see the Vegas odds anyway. On to the expert selections.

kmonty’s pick	kmonty’s thoughts	Jonathan’s pick
	JAC @ DEN (-3) – The Broncos need to shore up their run defense in case Jacksonville suddenly finds its running game. Kyle likes a defensive struggle with the Broncos pulling through in the end.
	SD (-4.5) @ GB – I think this could be closer than a lot of people think, and I was tempted to pick the Packers. The Chargers offensive line is its biggest problem right now, but then again they’ve been facing the Bears and Patriots defenses, not exactly a cakewalk. The Packers could make it interesting though. I want Jon to be right.
	IND (-6) @ HOU – You have no idea how tempted I was to take the Texans. If Andre Johnson were playing, by far their biggest weapon, I’m telling you right now that I would. This 4-game win streak the Texans are on started with the first franchise win against Indy, and it was the last game the Colts have lost.
	MIN @ KC (-3) – Mark it down – overtime field goal propels the Chiefs barely past the Vikings. Adrian Peterson rushed for 150 yards, but the Chiefs eek out a win. MARK IT DOWN. Unless Jon’s right, and the Vikings pull through, which would be grand.
	DET @ PHI (-6) – Can the Eagles pull a 2003, going 0-2 to start then finishing as the NFC’s #1 seed? I don’t think so – I doubt they’ll make the playoffs – but they’ll beat the Lions this Sunday. Jon thinks so too, so it must be true.
	BUF @ NE (-16) – I honestly think the Bills are the most underrated team in the NFL right now. They played two tough teams, nearly beat one, and have a ton of injuries to boot. 16 points is just disgraceful – I think they’ll play the Patriots closer than either of New England’s previous opponents, and the Pats will finally break it open in the fourth quarter, 31-24.
	MIA @ NYJ (-3) – The battle of 0-2 AFC East teams. Chad Pennington should return, I think he gets a bad rap from Jets fans (he’s only taken you guys to the playoffs, what, 3 of the last 5 years?). I like the Jets a lot more than the 3 points and think they could win by a couple of touchdowns, especially if Zach Thomas doesn’t play.
	SF @ PIT (-9) – Manny Lawson out for the season is a big loss for the Niners. I think he Steelers could win big. Ben Roethlisberger may struggle against the secondary, but I think Alex Smith will struggle more against Pittsburgh’s defense. Mike Tomlin is doing one helluva job so far in the Steel City.
	ARI @ BAL (-8) – Does anyone really believe the Ravens are 8 points better than anybody? The Cardinals are a botched play from being 2-0 (or really 0-2 if you look at it the other way), and I think they’re headed for a playoff spot. Upset in the makings for Kyle’s pick.
	STL @ TB (-3.5) – I’m just disgusted with the Rams right now. Two home losses and you think they’re going to travel to Tampa Bay, where the fans are going crazy after they pummeled the Saints last week? Not a chance in hell in my book.
	CIN @ SEA (-3) – I like Seattle and I like Seattle big. It could go the other way, but the Seahawks will run Shaun Alexander straight down the Bengals’ throats. There are a few teams in the NFC I think can compete with the AFC, and Seattle is one of them.
	CLE @ OAK (-3) – After the huge game last week by the Browns, they’ll come back down to earth quick and fall by the Raiders. And I think they could fall hard – like 30-14 hard. I just think the Raiders defense won’t get torched like the Bengals’ did, and I don’t know if the Browns can stop anybody.
	CAR (-4) @ ATL – I still think the Panthers will win the division, despite losing to the Texans. The Falcons o-line is horrendous, and Julius Peppers will have a field day.
	NYG @ WAS (-4) – I actually considered picking the Giants here – could catch the overconfident Redskins off guard. But Jason Campbell looks like the real deal, and Clinton Portis is playing very well. They’re getting amazing safety play from their rookie safety LaRon Landry, too.
	DAL @ CHI (-3) – OK, I’ve finally joined the Rex Grossman-bashing bandwagon. I thought he was a lot better than a lot of people gave him credit for. You know what? I was wrong. I almost picked the Cowboys for that reason alone, but I just think Grossman could still have a huge day with the deep ball against the Cowboys secondary.
	TEN @ NO (-4.5) – Call this the Battle of the Overrated. This has to be one of the biggest spreads for an 0-2 NFC team against a 1-1 AFC team in some time. I can’t conjure up a scenario where the Saints stop Vince Young, I just can’t – their defense has only registered one sack to date, and Young is showing everyone he’s still a winner.

To date, Kyle is 23-9, Jon is 19-13.

Great Denver Post article on our #2 receiver Brandon Marshall. I knew he was playing well, but I had no idea he was completely dominating his 2006 draftmates thus far. The article cites the 15 wide receivers drafted before Marshall, noting that Marshall is above and beyond all of these players in both receptions and receiving yards.

Allow me to do one better – readers, correct me if I’m wrong (I did about 10 minutes of research on it but can’t devote much more), Marshall still has more receiving yards than any other wide receiver taken in the draft, period (before or after). Only the Saints’ Marques Colston, who had a breakout rookie year and is the team’s #1, has more catches with 14, and he doesn’t even have as many yards as Marshall (117 yards for Colston).

Talk about a steal. No other word quite fits. Marshall’s yards after the catch are insane – he gives defenders consistent problems when they try to tackle him, and his big frame allows him to get above the defenders in the first place. His clutch catch, then big run after, allowed the Broncos to kick the game winner last week… it’s just plain exciting to see a Broncos draft pick excelling this much at the receiver position after years of struggle.

Position by position breakdown of the enemy every Friday. NOTE – When I give a team the advantage, I’m not talking about career strengths or upside or any of that. It’s all about who is playing better football right now.

QUARTERBACK – After parting ways with Byron Leftwich less than a month ago, the team is relying on David Garrard to lead them this season. So far, he’s doing a good job, completing over 60% of his passes and not throwing an interception. He has 476 yards and 2 touchdowns to show for it, along with a 101.8 quarterback rating. I’m giving Jacksonville the checkmark for this reason – he’s simply playing better, more controlled football than Jay Cutler is right now.
ADVANTAGE –

RUNNING BACK – The Jacksonville running game is traditionally one of the best in the league. But Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew have yet to find their traction, averaging 3.4 yards per carry in two games against the Titans and Falcons. Travis Henry leads all NFL rushers in yardage, so this one ended up being pretty easy.
ADVANTAGE –

WIDE RECEIVER – Really no contest. Like the Falcons, the Jaguars are infamous for struggling to find quality wide receivers, despite high draft picks. Matt Jones has even been called out by the coaches, and would be a #4 in our group. Dennis Northcutt leads the team in receptions with 9, followed by Ernest Wilford and Jones with 3 apiece. Nothing stellar here, our DBs shouldn’t have a problem. ADVANTAGE –

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Maurice Jones-Drew hopes to lead the Jaguars back to its running ways against the Broncos.

Playing the devil’s advocate… here are 5 steps the Broncos need to take if they were to lose the game on Sunday against Jacksonville.

1. Let the Jaguars ground game find its groove.

Last year, the Jaguars running game was among the best in the league. The two headed monster of Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor burned a lot of teams for a lot of yards last year (most especially the Indianapolis Colts, against whom the duo put up 297 yards and three touchdowns last December).

But this year, against not-particularly-renowned defenses in the Titans and Falcons, the Jaguars have struggled to find their running rhythm. They’ve rushed for an average of 98 yards per game, well below the Jack Del Rio standard, and hope to find their traction against Denver’s 27th ranked rush defense this week. This is the only one of these five steps that has me *really really* worried this week – like, the kind of worried that can keep you up at night. Last week, LaMont Jordan ran for a career high 159 yards! Simply unacceptable. While we may have completely shut down Taylor and the rushing game of the Jaguars last time the teams faced in 2005 (12 yards over 11 carries), our rush defense is not what it was then and could really get burned.

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vs.

Sunday, September 23, 2007 – 2:15 PM MT
CBS (KCNC TV Channel 4), KOA 850 AM, Sirius Channel 140

Two teams on the cusp of the playoffs last year will face off as the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) travel to the Denver Broncos (2-0) this coming Sunday. It is the first time the Jaguars have traveled to Denver since 1998.

The Jaguars have been dealing with a bit of a quarterback controversy early this year. After announcing that Byron Leftwich would be the starter this season in February, the head coach recanted and elected David Garrard as the starter days before the week 1 kickoff.

Defensively, the team has played well. Offensively, they have struggled. The Jaguars have yet to find the running rhythm they enjoyed last year in their two games. However, they were still able to come away with a 13-7 win against the Falcons last week. 10 of their 13 points were scored in the fourth quarter.

Denver was 1 of 3 teams to beat the 2005 Jacksonville Jaguars in the regular season, which is the last time either team has made the playoffs and the last time the teams have played each other.

I’ll have much more throughout the week, including roster breakdowns, scouting reports, and injury and weather report as the week moves along.

The Broncos now lead the division at 2-0, with the Chargers a game behind after their loss to the Patriots on Sunday night. The Chiefs and Raiders fill in the back end of the West at 0-2 apiece, losing to the Lions, Texans, Bears and Broncos.

Click image to view full breakdown

Here’s a quick scouting report on each team, including how they fared last week, injuries, and who they play next week and who I like to win the game.

Oakland Raiders – 0-2

Of course, we all know how the Raiders fared last week. Josh McCown is still the man according to coach Lane Kiffin, despite throwing three picks. JaMarcus Russell has been practicing, but still remains sidelined while he learns the system. Who knows if he’ll be ready when the teams play each other again much later in the year.

UP NEXT – Cleveland Browns come to Oakland. I think the Raiders have a good chance to win, but if the Browns can come up with anything like the offense they put together against the Bengals, we could be seeing the Raiders at 0-3 again this year.

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The Broncos have announced the Darrent Williams Memorial Teen Center, and as part of the fundraising for this worthy cause, they are holding a charity auction through Thursday. If you can’t make it to the physical address of the Boys and Girls Club in Montbello, you can still join the auction online. Point your browsers to PositivePlaceDenver.org and bid on the following items:

• Five (5) Broncos footballs signed by the late Darrent Williams. Minimum bid: $1,000.00
• Pair of sideline passes to the Jacksonville game. Current bid: $800.00
• Two (2) signed edition of Broncos VP of Public Relations Jim Saccomano‘s book – Game of My Life. Minimum bid: $100.00

Of course, donations are accepted. Go here to bid now!

What a wild and wacky week 2 in the NFL. I knew I wouldn’t repeat my 13-3 from week 1, and I was right, losing twice as many picks and going 10-6 (Cleveland?! Tampa Bay?! Washington?!). Now my season record is 23-9, and I’m 2-1 in picks against the spread.

1. Indianapolis Colts (2-0) | PREVIOUS: 1

This defense is speedy and small, and they only seem to struggle when they face an opponent who is speedy and big, a la Vince Young. Yeah, the Pats look better, but I’m just a “defending champion gets the nod” kinda guy.

2. New England Patriots (2-0) | PREVIOUS: 2

The only team that looks better statistically than the Broncos is the Patriots. And they’re not having to kick game-winning field goals. They look insane right now.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0) | PREVIOUS: 6

They’ve yet to play a good team, but neither have we, and we’re not blowing them up like these guys are (60-10).

4. Denver Broncos (2-0) | PREVIOUS: 5

Once we get past these sloppy mistakes, watch us go!

5. San Diego Chargers (1-1) | PREVIOUS: 4

There’s something about these Chargers that tells me they’re not like last year’s Chargers. The X-Factor might just be Norv Turner.
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