Five Steps to Win or Lose the Game has been disbanded, simply because I’d rather just tell you about the matchups, the X’s and O’s, and how the Broncos can win without a five-step list to restrict my thoughts or slow me down. Enjoy.

When the Packers have the ball

Stop the run. From a strict statistics perspective, the Packers play to the Broncos’ strengths. They can’t run the football, but know how to pass it, while the Broncos excel in pass defense and have struggled against the run. However, just as the Broncos seemed to improve their rush defense during the bye, I have no doubt the Packers’ main priority over their bye was to get their ground game going.

After all, they adopted the zone blocking scheme of our own Broncos last season to moderate success, and Brett Favre is coming off 6 horrible quarters of football. If the Packers were ever to find their running game, this would be the game to do it. Just as John Lynch expects the Packers to run the ball, I do too, so the main priority will be for the Broncos to shut this aspect of their offense down.

Keep screen passes short. The Broncos have been allowing big plays to come off short screen passes, and this simply needs to stop. This is on the linebackers – particularly Ian Gold and Nate Webster, who will need to play disciplined football on the outside against the short passing game of the Packers. Favre will look for tight end Donald Lee in the red zone – the Broncos have given up 6 touchdowns to the tight end position, and will need to address this with better linebacker and safety coverage.

Pressure Favre into mistakes. He’s thrown more interceptions than anyone, and we need the defensive line to step up and perform like they did in Pittsburgh for four quarters to force these mistakes out of Brett. With Champ Bailey (who should be good to go) playing on an island, the Packers may try to fake out Dre Bly with a trick play or two. Pressuring Favre before the play can be set up (like John Lynch’s clutch pressure against the Steelers in a situation last week) will be the key to preventing the long pass.

When the Broncos have the ball

Run outside to set up the inside run. The defensive line of the Packers is solid. They have stout defensive tackles that eat up blockers, making it difficult to run on the inside. While the defense may be familiar with the zone blocking scheme in practice, they have not played a team that employs that scheme in a real game since 2005. The Broncos will need to stretch this defense to set up the interior run, which means they will need to run stretch plays to the outside. The Packers start pass rush threats at defensive end who have been burned in the running game; the Broncos need to exploit this to set up the rest of our offense.

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Usually, one would think a home game against an inter-conference opponent in the first half of the season is pretty low on the totem pole of win importance.

Not in the AFC West, where every game counts.

The Broncos are a half game behind both the Chargers and Chiefs (4-3), and a win would elevate them to a three-way tie with San Diego and Kansas City. The Chargers have already lost to the Packers; a win for the Broncos would give them a leg up in the head-to-head schedule they can ill afford to pass.

It is also the end of the “home portion” of our schedule. From here on out, the Broncos schedule follows a simple pattern: on the road two weeks, home one. 6 of 9 of our remaining games will be played in opponents’ stadiums.

Finally, a win against another solid team can set the tone for the Broncos as they head on this extended road trip. We’re a young team; lacking veterans to right the ship if things go astray, and the Broncos can look back at these back-to-back wins and know that they can beat anybody on their schedule.

The Broncos season is not lost, and while this year’s NFL is looking like the biggest two-headed monster perhaps ever, anything can happen in January. Step 1 is winning the division, and we’ll worry about the road to the Super Bowl then.

• Each week, this ESPN blog covers every possible angle for the Monday Night Game. Keep your browsers tuned here and you’ll be set for Packers at Broncos tonight! [Hashmarks]
• Remember, you can always find our coverage of this week’s opponent in the Game Center. [BroncoTalk]
• Champ went through a full workout Saturday, giving most hope he should be play tonight. [The Gazette]
• The injury-riddle offensive line hasn’t slowed the Broncos running game yet. [CBS4 Denver]
• Pay attention, Simeon Rice. This is the story of a Bronco who came into Denver in free agency expecting one thing and finding something different. He wasn’t being used on the field the way he had hoped, but he’s not complaining to the media about it, nor is he calling out his teammates and coaches. His name is Daniel Graham. [Rocky Mountain News]
• This may be the greatest era of quarterbacks in the NFL. [Denver Post]

Injury Report for the Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos for Week 8 in the NFL, October 29, 2007.

PACKERS

OUT – CB Will Blackmon (foot), TE Bubba Franks (knee), DT Justin Harrell (ankle)
DOUBTFUL – CB Frank Walker (knee)
QUESTIONABLE – T Junius Coston (ankle), WR Ruvell Martin (back), DE Cullen Jenkins (ankle)
PROBABLE – C Scott Wells (eye), CB Al Harris (back), DE Mike Montgomery (knee), RB Vernand Morency (knee), CB Charles Woodson (foot), RB DeShawn Wynn (neck)

BRONCOS

OUT – WR Javon Walker (knee)
QUESTIONABLE – CB Champ Bailey (quad), RB Travis Henry (hip)
PROBABLE – S Hamza Abdullah (hip), CB Dre Bly (knee), TE Tony Scheffler (knee)

Slant: The Packers have probably the 2nd best cornerback tandem in the league, and both look to be healthy for Monday’s game. … Champ Bailey‘s questionable status comes as little surprise, but if he can’t go this just means the Broncos will need pressure from the defensive line even more. … Whether Travis Henry starts Sunday or not, expect the Broncos to employ a heavy rotation between Selvin Young and Andre Hall. … Even without TE Bubba Franks, the Packers have had success throwing to the tight end, and Donald Lee is having a decent year with 22 catches and a touchdown. … Packers C Scott Wells has been trying to get back into the lineup after he suffered a broken eye socket (ouch) against Chicago October 7th.

• Champ and Henry sat out Friday’s practice, while Scheffler and Bly went through a full workout. [Mason’s Morsels]
• Henry’s injury may force the Broncos back into the old runningback rotation. [Denver Post]
• Rod Smith is apprehensive on his injured hip, but is optimistic he can see the field soon. [CBS4 Denver]
• Al Wilson has ruled out a return to football this year, despite the swirling rumor a month ago. [Denver Post]
• Priest Holmes‘ return reeks of selfishness to one reporter, who says his actions hurt the team. [Kansas City Star]

Jonathan and I are officially competitive. We’re going at each other’s throats with behind-the-scenes smack talk you folks only wish you got to read.

Straight up, I have a 3 game lead for the season with a cool 67-36. However, Jonathan is beating me in picking the upsets at .481 to my .471.

Whatever, he’s just lucky. On to the picks!

Last week

Kyle – Against the Spread – 2-3
Straight up – 9-5
Jonathan – Against the Spread – 3-3
Straight up – 10-4

To Date

Kyle – Against the Spread – 8-9 (.471)
Straight up – 67-36 (.650)
Jonathan – Against the spread – 13-14 (.481)
Straight up – 64-39 (.621)

Kyle’s pick	Kyle’s Thoughts/Notes/Ramblings	Jonathan’s pick
	CLE (-3) @ STL – Looking at the Rams remaining home games isn’t a pretty sight. It’s either this one or when Atlanta comes to town later in the year. That’s it. With Steven Jackson coming back, I like the Rams to finally win one.
	DET (+5) @ CHI – Detroit is a horrible road team, and I think the Bears have too much pride to let this crapfest continue.
	IND (-7) @ CAR – We all know about The Hugest Biggest Game Of All Time Ever, so we’ll talk Panthers. They don’t have a shot in hell.
	MIA (+9.5) vs. NYG – (London) Are you serious, Miami? Ronnie Brown out for the year gives you no hope to win two games this year. Especially since you traded away Chris Chambers.
	OAK (+7.5) @ TEN – I knew the Raiders were overrated. They almost stole one from us when we fell asleep in the second half, but they’re still a crappy football team. Five wins, maybe.
	PHI (-1) @ MIN – Tough game to call. The Eagles run defense is a seive. I like AP to explode at home, and Donovan McNabb has shown me nothing when Brian Westbrook doesn’t get going (which he won’t).
	PIT (-3.5) @ CIN – If you even begin to look at the trenches in this game, it goes overwhelmingly toward Pittsburgh. Steelers 31-10.
	BUF (+3) @ NYJ – Two tough teams to figure out. I think the Bills play a helluva lot better at home, so I’ll take the Jets in a flip of the coin game.
	HOU (+9.5) @ SD – So the Chargers will be playing in Qualcomm Sunday after all. While I think Norv Turner will cost them a few more games this year, I don’t think the week after the bye is one of them.
	JAC (+4) @ TB – Yes, I know David Garrard is hurt. But I remember watching Quinn Gray in the Kansas City game in week 17 last year, and i saw a lot better player than the one who showed up last Monday night. With a full week of preparation, I think the Jags should be able to pull out a win a whole 3 1/2 hours from their home stadium.
	NO (-3) @ SF – I don’t always pick losing streak teams that find their star returning from injuries, but I’m 2/2 in the Niners and Rams. Alex Smith returning won’t spark that much of an offense, but the Saints have done little to impress either. The long trip won’t help them, so I like the 49ers to (finally) win one.
	NE (-16.5) @ WAS – This is the first time in NFL history that two head coaches with 3 Super Bowl wins will share the field. Yeah, I don’t care either.
	GB (+3) @ DEN – It’s looking like Champ won’t go again. Just my gut feeling (more limited in practice Thursday than Wednesday). If we can beat the Steelers without Champ we should beat the Pack without him – let’s take care of business and get back above .500.

Four Broncos had been nominated for weekly NFL awards, and the coach won for performances in Week 7.

Mike Shanahan beat out Buffalo’s Dick Jauron and Detroit’s Rod Marinelli to win the Motorola Coach of the Week Award.

DE Tim Crowder was nominated for the Diet Pepsi Rookie of the Week Award but lost to Buffalo RB Marshawn Lynch. DE Elvis Dumervil was nominated for the GMC Defensive Player of the Week Award but lost to Washington LB London Fletcher. QB Jay Cutler was nominated for the FedEx Express Player of the Week but lost to Patriots QB Tom Brady.

Taking a look around the Internet, on what the experts, beat writers, soothsayers, and your grandpa are saying about the upcoming game. We’ll give you a snippet, then you can jump through the links provided and read everything they had to say.

“The Broncos will need to take advantage of the aggressiveness of the Packers’ defenders, especially linebackers Brady Poppinga and [A.J.] Hawk, by throwing screens and dumpoff passes to running backs Selvin Young and Travis Henry (if he’s healthy enough to play) and fullback Cecil Sapp. By allowing the Packers’ starting defensive ends, [Aaron] Kampman and Cullen Jenkins, to rush upfield, the offensive linemen, led by center Chris Myers, can make their way into the open field to pick off Hawk or Poppinga.” [The War Room]

“MATCHUPS TO WATCH: Broncos SS Nick Ferguson and OLB Nate Webster vs. Packers TE Donald Lee — The Broncos have given up six touchdowns to tight ends, including three against Pittsburgh last week. Brett Favre has always liked throwing to his tight ends, and Lee is having a nice year. The Packers will probably try to test Denver’s defense against tight ends.” [Inside Slant]

“Although the Broncos take great pride in their ability to run the ball they are somewhat unsettled in the running game right now. There is instability in the interior of the offensive line and RB Travis Henry is nursing bruised ribs and facing a suspension. Still, Denver’s philosophy will be to use the run to set up the pass. The Packers have an excellent edge rush with DEs Aaron Kampman and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila so look for the Broncos to run inside even though their offensive line situation is shaky. They may have to depend on FB Cecil Sapp as a lead blocker on isolation plays and attack the athletic Packers linebackers. If they can run inside with some effectiveness the Broncos will have a chance to negate the Green Bay pressure off the edge.” [ESPN Insider]

“This game features the two strongest arms in the NFL. It might be Jay Cutler and if it is not him then it is Brett Favre. They ought to have a contest before the game or something. For years I would have taken Favre for velocity but now I think I would probably take Cutler. He has the ability to throw the ball with more velocity than Brett Favre.” [John Madden]

“The Steelers win may have been exhilarating, but the Broncos still have major problems on defense and serious injuries on both sides of the ball to overcome. The Broncos host a Packers team refreshed after their bye and committed to improving their running game.” [Fox Sports]

“In his only career game at Denver on Oct. 17, 1999, Favre went just 7-for-23 for 120 yards and three interceptions of a 31-10 loss. Denver is one of just three cities where the future Hall of Famer has not thrown a TD pass. Pittsburgh and Baltimore are the others.” [Yahoo! Sports]

Picks Around the Web

Seth Wickersham Sean Salisbury Mark Schlereth Eric Allen Chris Mortenson Mike Golic Gil Brandt Moose Johnston Brian McGovern Bruce Murray Adam Schein Solomon Wilcots	Merril Hoge Pat Kirwan Shannon Sharpe Jerry Rice Hagen/LeGreca Jim Miller Tim Ryan

Picks from ESPN, Sirius…

Hat tip to Herc for this link in the comments.  This is just an instant classic – what we’re looking forward to on Monday Night Football with the ESPN Crew:

foodcourtlunch.com – The Tony K. Football-Themed Four-Hour Comedy Hour (a.k.a. Monday Night Football).

• The assistants on defense who worked under Jim Bates will hope to show him that the students have become the masters. [Denver Post]
• Team Report: Rod Smith says he took a step, but he’s still hesitant on his injured hip. Selvin Young may have his largest role yet this Sunday; the Broncos have talked about Grady Jackson but seemed unlikely to pursue him; Champ Bailey was more limited in practice on Thursday than Wednesday. [RMN]
• Tony Scheffler looks forward to repeating his late 2006 success. [DenverBroncos]
• If everyone’s predictions are correct, the Packers will come out throwing the ball. It will be only the second time this season the Broncos secondary has been challenged more than the run defense. [Denver Post]
• Having gone through the fire that is Vanderbilt in the SEC, Jay Cutler is ready for just about anything. [RMN]
• Introducing Jason Elam, author. [RMN]
• Going back in time, wondering what the sports world would be like if the Atlanta Falcons never traded away Brett Favre. [RMN]
• The Chargers have the final say on where they’ll play this weekend, and it looks like Qualcomm will be ready. [RMN]
• Seriously, Channing Crowder?  Seriously? [Palm Beach Post]