Kyle and I have been crazy-busy this week, so things are running a bit behind.

Some of you had asked for my thoughts on these picks, so this week you’ll get a behind the scenes look into my stunning decision-making ability… In other words, you’ll quickly see that I have NO IDEA WHAT I’M DOING!

Come on, guys… if it ain’t Orange and Blue I have no clue. :)

Kyle: So now we know the method behind Jonathan’s madness… or do we? Who else is not fooled by his clever ruse as a clueless prognosticator? Some have said, “Oh, well he never picks AFC West teams.” Again, a clever alibi to disguise his genius.

Thanks, Jon, for getting this post up. We have been insanely busy. And when I say insanely busy, I mean just that — another homework or work assignment and I’d go insane.

Last week

Kyle – Against the Spread – 1-3
Straight up – 7-6
Jonathan – Against the Spread – 1-2
Straight up – 7-6

To Date

Kyle – Against the Spread – 9-12 (.429)
Straight up – 74-42 (.638)
Jonathan – Against the spread – 13-14 (.481)
Straight up – 71-45 (.612)

Far and away, this was the hardest week to pick games so far this season.  In my mind there were two games that were well-favored either way – Redskins/Jets and Chargers/Vikings.  Otherwise, flip a coin and you have that week’s winner.  I’m afraid of going 2-12 this week, I could be that wrong.

Kyle’s pick	Jon’s Thoughts/Notes/Ramblings	Jonathan’s pick
	WAS @ JETS – I went with the Redskins this week. I think that any team bold enough to still be using a racial slur in their team name is not to be messed with!
	GB @ KC – This one’s easy. DEN needs everyone in the AFC West to lose as much as possible, so I’m pulling for the old man this week (Favre not Holmes).
	ARZ @ TB – For some reason I just like the Bucs. Maybe it’s my three years in Tampa. Maybe it’s Chucky. Maybe it’s the fact they fire cannons if they score at home. Beats me – but I like em.
	CAR @ TEN – Living in Knoxville Tennessee, I feel a bit of loyalty to the home state… well, enough to pick them to win vs CAR.
	SF @ ATL – Unlike the Bucs, living in Atlanta left me with no warm fuzzy feeling for the Falcons…. Have you gotten the feeling I’m just randomly picking these things yet?
	JAC @ NO – Um… No clue. I’ll go with the big easy.
	DEN @ DET – As Kyle as mentioned, we don’t pick against DEN.
	CIN @ BUF – My office mate (guy in the office next to mine) is a big Bills fan. I’m going to go with the Bills… it will make my Monday easier.
	SD @ MIN – I really can’t stand the Chargers for making my first Denver home game a rout, so I think I’m going to be Vikings fan this weekend.
	SEA @ CLE – Well…um… yeah, I don’t know. Let’s go with the Hawks.
	NE @ IND – The most anticipated game in the history of American Football is this week folks! Am I the only one that just doesn’t care about this game? I’ll pick Indy, cause their the underdog.
	HOU @ OAK – I’ll take Denver South over the Raiders any day, thank you very much.
	DAL @ PHI – Dallas kicked our tail in the preseason, and I’ve heard they’ve been pretty good this year. I’ll take them.
	BAL @ PIT – I made several Steeler friends this off-season during my tiff with our mascot. They were mad about PIT adding their own mascot this year. So this is a sympathy pick.

Injury Report for the Denver Broncos and Detroit Lions for Week 9 in the NFL, November 4, 2007.

BRONCOS

OUT – DE Jarvis Moss (leg), WR Javon Walker (knee)
QUESTIONABLE – S John Lynch (neck)
PROBABLE – CB Champ Bailey (quad), DT Antwon Burton (ankle), RB Travis Henry (ribs), G Montrae Holland (shoulder), WR Brandon Stokley (hamstring), LB D.J. Williams (shoulder)

Slant: The Broncos play much better defense with John Lynch there to direct his teammates and deliver big hits. … The Broncos are expected to place Jarvis Moss on Injured Reserve. … If Montrae Holland‘s shoulder injury were to worsen, the Broncos would be without all 3 of their starting interior offensive linemen.

LIONS

QUESTIONABLE – DE Kalimba Edwards (knee)
PROBABLE – T George Foster (ankle), WR Calvin Johnson (back)

Slant: Injured T George Foster was part of the package the Broncos sent to Detroit this offseason in return for cornerback Dre Bly. … Calvin Johnson was highly touted coming out of college this April, but it is fair to say he has struggled thus far.

Taking a look around the Internet, on what the experts, beat writers, soothsayers, and your grandpa are saying about the upcoming game. We’ll give you a snippet, then you can jump through the links provided and read everything they had to say.

“Establish the run. The Broncos need to stretch Detroit’s defense out to the sidelines with their zone-blocking scheme. The offensive linemen can cut down defensive tackles Shaun Rogers and Cory Redding at the snap. Running back Selvin Young had solid production both running and catching the ball against the Packers. Denver needs to get him going early this week to take some of the pressure off quarterback Jay Cutler. Travis [Henry], who is expected to return from a rib injury this week, could also give the Broncos’ ground game a boost.” — The War Room

“Broncos TE Tony Scheffler vs. Lions SS Kenoy Kennedy — Scheffler has emerged as a dangerous weapon for QB Jay Cutler, and a reliable red-zone threat. The Lions, and especially Kennedy, need to keep an eye on him. The Lions have done a decent job this season defending the tight end, but Chicago’s Greg Olsen scored a touchdown against Detroit last week.” — Inside Slant

“The Detroit Lions are hot right now and the defense is playing to the liking of head coach Rod Marinelli. The offense isn’t putting up huge numbers like it did early in the season but isn’t turning the ball over, either, and the Lions are winning the important time of possession stat. The Detroit defense has also caused a league-high 20 turnovers. The Broncos will be coming off a short week and a crushing overtime defeat on Monday night against Green Bay and are now sitting at 3-4. Denver needs a win in Detroit and more in order to keep alive any hopes of making the postseason.” — ESPN

“The Broncos are dead-last against the run this season, and the Lions have found startling consistency and efficiency by feeding Kevin Jones the ball. That should continue this week, as Mike Martz seems to recognize that Jones plays heavily into the Lions’ success. That has come at the expense of their once-feared aerial assault, which has been slightly nullified in recent weeks.” — AOL Fanhouse

“The Broncos need somebody in the receiving corps to be the playmaker inside the 20-yard line. They have shown they can pile up the yardage with the catch-and-runs in the middle of the field, breaking tackles and finding the open spots. But in the scoring zone, they still, without Javon Walker, don’t have anyone who has shown they can be a go-to player down low. The Lions start a rookie at free safety – Gerald Alexander, who played for University of Colorado coach Dan Hawkins at Boise State – but they have plenty of speed at linebacker to drop into coverage if they need to.” — Rocky Mountain News

“The Broncos also are dealing with some key injuries. Pro Bowl safety John Lynch was knocked out in the first half, and Denver was already without No. 1 running back Travis Henry (ribs) and No. 1 receiver Javon Walker (knee). While Walker is expected to miss another month, it’s uncertain if Lynch or Henry will be able to play Sunday.” — Fox Sports / AP

Picks Around the Web

Jeff Legwold Eric Allen Chris Mortenson Hagen/LeGreca Bruce Murray Adam Schein	Ron Jaworski Seth Wickersham Merril Hoge Sean Salisbury Mark Schlereth Mike Golic Pat Kirwan Shannon Sharpe Gil Brandt Moose Johnston Brian McGovern Solomon Wilcots Jerry Rice Jim Miller Tim Ryan

Picks from ESPN, Sirius

This week we face the Detroit Lions. To be honest several of us prior to the season were looked at this game as an easy road victory and nothing more. However, this week is going to be a real test for Jay and the Boys – but most importantly Jay himself.

Jay Cutler has done very well for his first season as a starter, and last week he completed a game with zero interceptions (which is a good step forward). However, Cutler’s 8 interceptions and 6 fumbles have the Detroit Lions licking their collective lips in anticipation of Sunday’s game.

I mean, Detroit must have something in their water because their secondary is not only surviving without Bly locking down one corner — they are excelling this year! Currently the Lions lead the league in interceptions (with four coming last week vs Brian Griese in Chicago).

In fact, Detroit’s only two regular season defeats this year have come when the motor city fails to produce turnovers. Against the Eagles, Detroit had 3 sacks and 2 forced fumbles but didn’t get any interceptions. That game went to the Eagles 56-21. And during the Washington game that saw them blown out 34-3, Detroit got zero interceptions and didn’t force a single fumble. They also had zero sacks in that game.

So, if we’re going to be successful in Detroit, we’ll need Jay Cutler to have a nearly perfect day.

It’s as Mike Shanahan always says… “The team that wins the turnover battle usually wins the game.” No one should be surprise that the two best teams in the league (IND & NE) are tied for the best turnover ratio (+11). While the Broncos are helping out the curve by sitting at 25th in the league (-5) and have barely held on to win three of their seven games this season.

This weekend will rest squarely on Jay Cutler’s shoulders. He needs to show the same control and good decision-making ability he did versus Green Bay. He needs to protect the ball. And, for goodness sake Jay, HOLD ON TO THE DARN SNAP! :)

Mark my words, if our offense can keep from turning the ball over, we’re good to go my friends!

Go Broncos!

-Jonathan Douglas
–BroncoTalk.net

• It’s said you can’t grade a draft class until three or four years down the line.  In that case, start handing out F’s for the Broncos drafts thus far this century.  [Mile High Report]
• The Travis Henry case looks like it will get pushed back again.  [Denver Post]
• Domonique Foxworth doesn’t mind playing both safety and cornerback when needed — he says it beats the alternative, not playing.  [CBS4 Denver]
• Let’s not spin this weekend’s game any other way- this is the Bailey Bowl, plain and simple. [Rocky Mountain News]
• Jim Bates adjusted his scheme during the bye week, explaining the different looks and the confusion in personnel Monday night. [Denver Post]
• If this game comes down to turnovers, the Broncos may be in trouble as the Lions lead the league in both interceptions and total turnovers.  [Rocky Mountain News]

Wide receiver and team captain Rod Smith and rookie DE Jarvis Moss are to be placed on the Injured Reserve list, Head Coach Mike Shanahan announced Thursday. Smith is unable to come back after hip surgery nine months ago. Moss suffered a “freak accident” in practice Thursday and fractured his right fibula and tore ankle ligaments.

Smith’s news comes in the wake of his first practice this year after spending all of preseason and the first six weeks of the year on the physically unable to perform list. “After seeing the doctor (and) after practicing for about a week, he could see that he’s a little too far away to have a chance to be activated in the next couple of weeks,” coach Mike Shanahan said. “So, obviously, he won’t be activated in the next two weeks, which means he won’t be activated for this year.”

Moss had broken the starting lineup several times this season, and was really starting to show development. His loss on the defensive line will be felt.

John Lynch did not go through a full practice as was previously reported, but instead was limited in action Thursday.

We’ve been hit harder by injuries than I can remember in quite some time. These two bring the total of players on IR to 8 for the Broncos, by my count. This doesn’t count the career-threatening injury to Al Wilson, either. More as it comes.

@
Denver Broncos (3-4) @ Detroit Lions (5-2)

Sunday, November 4, 2007 at 11:00 AM MT
CBS 4 | KOA 850 AM | Sirius 121

Weather: N/A (Dome)

Injury Report: TBA Friday

Scoring Trend: Lions 24.2, Broncos 21.2

The Denver Broncos (3-4) take their first of 6 remaining road trips this Sunday as they travel to face the Detroit Lions (5-2) in Ford Field. The Broncos are looking to bounce back from a Monday Night Football Overtime loss of 19-13 to the Green Bay Packers, while the Detroit Lions are coming off a road win en route to sweeping last year’s NFC North Champion Chicago Bears. Both teams are one game behind their respective division leaders.

The Lions are one of the more surprising teams in the NFL this year, with the preseason prediction posed by quarterback Jon Kitna of a 10-6 season looking more and more likely with each win. On the other end of the spectrum are the Denver Broncos, who are struggling more than most people anticipated.

The Lions defense leads the league in takeaways, and the offense ranks among the highest scorers in the NFL. What once had to be considered a one-dimensional offensive attack has found balance with the return of running back Kevin Jones, who has over 180 yards in the past two games, including a 100-yard effort last week against the Bears.

The Broncos offense has been able to churn up yardage, but hasn’t been able to find the end zone. They will need to do that against the Lions in what could be a shootout, as the Broncos defense has struggled to stop the run all season (ranking dead last in the league).

Stats and notes that probably mean nothing: The Broncos own the NFL’s best record in games played directly after a Monday Night game, at 10-1. … They lead the Lions all-time 6-3-0, including 3-2 on the road. The teams have only played three times since 1990. … This will be Coach Shanahan‘s 200th career game as head coach in the NFL. … The Broncos are 10-2 on the road in November dating back to the 2000 season.

We’ll have much more on the surprising Lions, including breakdowns from around the web and our own thoughts on how to attack this defense and shut down their offense.

Broncos safety John Lynch received word from Dr. Robert Watkins today, telling the All Pro he can play as soon as the symptoms from his neck stinger subside, the Denver Post reports. Lynch is hopeful he will play this Sunday at Detroit.

Lynch was injured in the first quarter of Monday Night’s loss to the Packers and did not return. In an earlier report, Lynch had indicated this latest stinger concerned him more than any other injury since his career-threatening series of stingers as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer.

Andrew Mason of DenverBroncos.com reports that Lynch went through a full practice on Thursday.

Meanwhile, veteran WR Rod Smith was sidelined for the second consecutive practice. Rod Smith was placed on the physically unable to perform list and practiced for the first time last week. The Broncos have until November 14 to either add Smith to the active roster or place him on injured reserve.

The team’s official injury report for this week’s game is not due until Friday.

Mike Klis of the Denver Post wrote a great article exploring the numbers for this 2007 Broncos offense of ours. As far as yards per play are concerned, the Broncos are on pace to set a franchise record. That’s right, we’re more efficient gaining yards than the final years under Elway thus far. Yet we’re scoring an average of 17.0 points per game, worse than last year under Jake Plummer (remember Coach Shanahan always mentioned Plummer’s 17.7 points per game as the main reason for his benching). So what gives?

Klis’ article explores the question without offering an answer, but it seems obvious to me there are several reasons behind the struggle to score points. First and foremost, the injuries have to be mentioned. We’ve been bit harder than normal this year with the injury bug.

Second, and this ties right into the injury bug: we are a brand spanking new unit, position by position. Here’s a nugget for you: the Broncos did not feature a single starter on offense last week that started in that position in week 8 of last year.

Think about that for a minute. Go through the offensive line… Matt Lepsis was hurt by then, Hamilton and Nalen are now on IR, and the right side is new (Pears was Lepsis’ backup, so he wasn’t playing right tackle). The starting tight end was Stephen Alexander, now on IR and likely retiring. Plummer was the QB, Tatum Bell was the runner, both were traded. Rod Smith and Javon Walker are both down with injuries. FB Kyle Johnson was released. That’s everyone! Not a single returning starter from 2006 to 2007 in week 8, a 12 month turnaround.

Third, we’ve played some damn good defenses. Jacksonville, whose big DTs completely shut down our running game; Indianapolis, featuring the frontrunner for defensive MVP Bob Sanders; San Diego in their first bounce back game; Pittsburgh was ranked #1 when we battled them; Green Bay’s defense is underrated. Every team in the NFL would struggle against that five game stretch.

All things considered, I would argue that the surprise isn’t the lack of points. When you consider the injuries, that turnaround, and the defenses we’ve played, the real (pleasant) surprise is that we’re churning up yards in the first place.

How to Fix It

The offensive playcalling, in and out of the red zone, is pretty brutal at this point, and deserves to be called out. Question 1: What happened to the big play? I don’t want to hear about protection issues – Cutler has been one of the least hit quarterbacks in the 2007 NFL. How hard is it to keep Daniel Graham inside to help Erik Pears in the edge rush when you’re planning a big play with three wideouts? Everyone knows the protection has to be there for the big play to happen, and I think it can be if the coaches just try! The Packers didn’t score a single touchdown from inside enemy territory — two big throws did the Broncos in! Why didn’t we at least try the same back at them?

Question 2: 3rd down, 22 seconds, no timeouts, and you call a quarterback sneak? Maybe that wasn’t the call (maybe it was a passing play that Cutler just ran with), but it seemed like it was set up that way to me. Conservative to say the least, and borderline stupid. Throw the damn ball! Incomplete, the clock stops, you’re not rushing your field goal unit for the second time this year. Pass complete, touchdown, we win! If you’re worried about the interception that would have lost the game, well… we lost anyway. Conservative playcalling in the red zone has been plaguing us all year, and it’s time to let Cutler and company air it out. If anything this will force the opposing defense to have to respect the pass, which could set up the run in those crowded areas. The quarterback running play that was called hasn’t had a high success rate all year — sometimes I think the coaches have lost their killer instinct and are more concerned with not losing instead of winning.

Question 3: Can we get a turnover please? Quick stat for you (consider this a preview of a bigger post I’m planning for later this afternoon or tomorrow) – we have a mere 11 drives that began beyond our own 35 yard line. I’ll call that “good” field position. 4 of those 11 drives were converted into touchdowns, 2 more were field goals. Over half of our drives that begin in good field position result in points, and more often than not, it’s a touchdown!

I think the reason behind this is the offensive line staying strong on a shorter field. Give them a long field and they seem to wear down by the time we reach the red zone. They’re not moving the defense on running plays as well, and they’re not protecting the passer as consistently. Chalk it up to inexperience or less than ideal conditioning, but it’s not easy to construct a 70 yard (or more) drive in the high altitude, especially for a bunch of guys new to the system.

Overall, this offense needs to do a bit better against turnovers (Cutler’s first interception-free game was a great relief), and something about the red zone offense needs to change. The playcalling needs to get less conservative, and the offensive line needs to step it up. Not having long, time-consuming drives (ahem, how about a nice interception to get some field position?) to wear out the linemen would help, too.

Don’t misunderstand me: I’m not calling for Shanahan’s head. I think that talk is crazy, frankly. But I’m not going to dismiss him from accountability, either. His specialty, his genius, falls on the offensive side of the football, and even with this amazing talent at quarterback, he has failed to coach this team into a point scoring machine. I think playing the Detroit defense, probably the worst we’ve played against all year, could see this offense explode. But it’s all for naught if we can’t convert these yardage totals into points.

• Not since his career-threatening injuries in Tampa Bay has John Lynch been this concerned over his neck. Horrible news, but at least he’s saying he’s feeling better. [Rocky Mountain News]
• The Lions game also marks the homecoming of Dre Bly. [Associated Press]
• The Broncos worked out Olympic star and kick returner Jeremy Bloom on Tuesday. [Denver Post]
• The Monday Night game broke ESPN’s record for most-watched program on cable. [Denver Post]
• This week’s opponent Jon Kitna is taking criticism for his choice in Halloween costume.  I must say, I completely agree with Jim Rohm on this one.  Paraphrasing: “If the Lions have a problem with their quarterback impersonating their drunk and naked defensive line coach, maybe they shouldn’t have a drunk and naked defensive line coach.”  I, along with most others, it seems, had thought Joe Cullen had gotten the axe for this, but apparently he is still with the team!  I can’t stop laughing at this one, just can’t.