• Right in tune with Earl’s recent post on the offense, Football Outsiders breaks down what ails the Broncos offense, and it starts with power running up the middle. Great breakdown of the game against Oakland, too. [Football Outsiders]
• Brandon Stokley isn’t sure if he will play this Sunday or not. [CBS4 Denver]
• Comparing this year’s Patriots to the almost-perfect 1998 Denver Broncos. Will the Giants spoil the party again? [Armchair GM]
• Chris Myers, Cecil Sapp, Nate Webster, and D.J. Williams all traveled to Florida Monday to pay their respects during Reskins safety Sean Taylor‘s funeral. [Denver Post]

Just one link today, folks. Everything else is about yesterday’s news on Travis Henry, Sam Adams, and Jeff Shoate. Seriously, everything.

I’m not a big Woody Paige fan (some of his recent work has been particularly bad/weird), but he had an interesting take on the Henry suspension and his “victory” over the NFL. It might just have more to do with politics and not having to fight the legal system than admitting that The Shield was wrong.

Ostensibly, the NFL erred in the faulty handling of the Henry drug testing, response to a temporary restraining order and effort to move the case from a state to a federal court. The league opened itself up to a potentially precarious circumstance in which the New York Supreme Court eventually could have ruled that its policy and practices in regard to substance abuse tests are not acceptable under the law.

In all honesty, it’s refreshing to hear Woody talk about something worth talking, and doing it in an informative and entertaining fashion.

To err is human, to the NFL it’s sublime – Denver Post

Or from the I have a headache and I am avoiding work file…

I have been meaning to write an article about Jay Cutler’s stats this year, which are absolutely phenomenal, but it has taken me a few weeks to get to it.

Perhaps it is just as well that I waited. Everyone was on the bandwagon three weeks ago, and the Bear’s loss was hard to swallow but everyone came away agreeing that we should have won that game and losing it was not entirely a team failure. But this week, well, the whole team looks bad. Cutler had a bad day. Marshall had a bad day. The defense had three bad days all rolled into one. Except for one great looking drive to open the game, the Broncos simply did not look good.

And as a team, they are good; but they are young. They are still learning to work together. It’s all small stuff now, but it’s that small stuff that counts. Every down, every play.

But what’s good? Jay Cutler. And not just the basic completion rate, QB rating stats, but the stats where they matter — 3rd down completions, average length of play, and how they compare to the rest in the league. The short story is that Jay is a top 10 quarterback, right now. He is not the quarterback of the future, he is the quarterback of today. Yes, in his second season — and his first season as the full time starter — Jay Cutler is a top ten quarterback. Don’t believe me? Football Outsiders have a fantastic statistics compilation system that rates players based upon their value every play. As of right now (and as I write this the stats are probably not updated for the Raiders’ loss and may change a bit because of it), he has a DPAR (Defense-Adjusted Points Above Replacement) of 55.3 — this stat means that over the course of the season, Jay Cutler has scored approximately 55.3 points where an “average” quarterback would not have scored. This number is the 11th in the league right now, just ahead of Ben Roethlisberger and just a shade behind Matt Hasselbeck. For comparison, Tom Brady is rating the highest ever at 156 points and Peyton Manning is coming in at a more realistic — and still incredibly good — 74.3 points. (That still puts him behind Romo, Palmer, Anderson, Favre and of course Brady).

That’s not the only stat, though. There is also DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) which is a different stat that says roughly the same thing. In this stat, Cutler is ranked 9th in the league with largely the same group of quarterbacks ahead of him.

Cutler is both helped and hurt by Marshall — Marshall who is running good routes and making great plays but has a couple more drops than he ought to have — and he his hurt by not having Walker out there. Stokley has helped pick up the game, but having him in the slot is where he shines, and having Walker there to attract the best corner away from Marshall makes him better. Walker isn’t 100% yet, and it’s really shown the last couple games. Cutler tried to force a couple of balls to him, and it just wasn’t there.

But the other thing that the stats show, and it’s something that’s been true all season, even before Henry got hurt, is that our power running game sucks. You know the one, where you run up the middle to get 2 yards for the first down, even when they’re lined up against you, knowing it’s coming. That was our bread and butter when Mike Anderson was our power runner. In theory Henry should have been able to be that guy, but our O-line hasn’t been doing it. According to Football Outsiders, our Power Success Rate is 41%, and despite that we’re ranked 13th in run blocking because of the fantastic long runs that Young and Hall have been able to pull off. For comparison, at 13 we’re at 41%, ranks 32 in the league. You have to go down to the 21st ranked to find a team whose power success rate is in the 50% range; every other team above 20th is above 60%. That’s huge. Also, that probably means 20% more punts.

This low success rate makes the success of Young and Hall even more impressive, I think; usually a lot of a back’s success could easily be laid on the O-line. And while that’s still true, I think this year a lot less of the success can be credited to the linemen, and more of it can be credited to the backs themselves.

So what’s good? Cutler. Marshall. Stokley. Scheffler. Graham (sure, his numbers aren’t sexy, but he’s a key reason Cutler has a relatively low number of sacks this year). Young, Hall.

What’s bad? Henry hasn’t been the stud, even when he was healthy. I don’t think he’s the answer. Cecil Sapp — I don’t see how he was better than Kyle Johnson. And the offensive line, in general, is a bit weak.

However, statistics show that no one factor is more important to the success of an offensive line than consistency, which is to say, a unit that plays together and stays together. Part of being a good linemen has a lot to do with knowing what the guy next to you is going to do, and that only comes through experience. Lots of experience. As the games have progressed, this line has improved. Jeff Legwold noted that defenses attacking Myers and Kuper have backed off that tactic. Consistency builds a better line.

If we keep roughly the same line in next year, I think they’ll be much better, due to their experience together. This might mean letting Nalen retire. This might mean keeping Erik Pears even though he’s pretty average — a better player may not be a better player in his place, at this point. It means someone will have to step aside to let Hamilton back in, assuming he recovers from his concussion, but that should be ok. Everyone on the line has experience with Hamilton.

When I look at this team, I do see some problems, but I see a team with a lot more youth than they had last year, and at key positions. And I see that youth playing tough and strong and largely not flaming out. I see far, far better drafts in the last two years than the rest of the decade, and another solid draft can set this team up to return to the days of being in the playoffs every year. I see Cutler to Marshall as being in the same league as Manning to Harrison. I see a good team that had too much youth and too many free agents to start the season strong, and alas has had too many injuries to finish the season strong. But the team can still finish this season, and if we have a similar team next year, I see a strong start out of the gate.

According to the Denver Post, Sam Adams and Jeff Shoate were given their pink slips today.

Meanwhile, the Broncos cut starting defensive tackle Sam Adams and reserve cornerback Jeff Shoate. They’re expected to be replaced this week. Adams didn’t make much of an impact after signing as a free agent in June.

Now, as little impact as Sam Adams made, are we really going to find someone better for the last 4 games of the season?

BREAKING NEWS – The Denver Broncos announced that Broncos running back Travis Henry has won his appeal against the NFL regarding his positive test for marijuana. Henry will not be suspended and will remain on the Broncos, according to a statement by the team.

I applaud the NFL for making the right choice – many theorized that the league wouldn’t be willing to admit that its initial decision was wrong. The indestructible shield lowered its guard a bit, admitting that they, and not Henry, had made the mistake. I’ll do the same. Travis, I was wrong.

Good for the NFL, and Henry, in making the right choices after all.

Some Daily Links to get you going this Tuesday!

• Legwold has a very good article that includes a breakdown of how our opponents this season have targeted our backups as injuries have sidelined our starters. [Rocky Mountain News]
• “I’m hearing everything, and I don’t know anything.” — Travis Henry, on the pending league decision on his suspension. [Denver Post]
• Shanahan says that his highest priority is for the Broncos to play a COMPLETE football game rather than focusing on the mathmatics of their playoff chances. [Rocky Mountain News]
• Mark Klis points out a stunning stat… Denver’s defense is allowing more points this year than any Denver team since 1968! Champ Bailey comment: “Heck, yes, it’s embarrassing!” [Denver Post]
• With our loss to Oakland, KC is licking their lips in anticipation of their upcoming game at Mile High. They haven’t won in Denver since 2000, and their official website explains that the key to victory will be for the Chief’s to have a balanced game. [kcchiefs.com]

I know we all HATE to see our team lose. I understand that it’s gut-wrenching to watch the Raiders beat us. I get that Denver’s 5-7 sucks rocks. However, on Monday morning (after a good long cry on Sunday), I want to hear something positive about my Broncos.

I’m not be optimistic. I’m not being naive. I’m not even being an extreme homer. I just want to hear a few positive things about my favorite team so I can enjoy my work week a little bit.

So, I’ll lead off the list with a couple of positive things:

From this last game…

* Brandon “Clutch” Stokley – No catches until late in the third, and then he explodes and gains over 100 yards including several key third down catches.

* Brandon “Too Big to Tackle” Marshall – You can’t stop Baby TO. He’s not my favorite Bronco, but I have to say that I’ve been impressed with this blocking last week and his continued yardage after contact. The big man is just hard to bring down. P.S. He also took the blame for Cutler’s second INT. Maybe he’s growing up after all.

* Todd “I won’t kick to Hester again, I promise” Sauerbrun – Actually had a pretty good bounce back game with several very big kicks.

* Nate “Where’s My Helmet” Webster – Nate’s been coming on strong, and this week he forced a fumble in addition to 9 tackles.

* D.J. “The Middle” Williams – A fumble recovery and… 13.5 tackles!!! That’s what I’m talkin about baby! :)

From the last few games…

* Selvin “Surprise Me” Young – What a great college free agent find again by Shanahan and company! Young has really impressed me despite my unwaivering love and support for…

* Andre “Atta Boy” Hall – Not only did we find one free agent RB that can put up 100 yards per game, but we found TWO! Hall had a great game a week ago (even when injured) and I foresee him becoming an even bigger part of our offense.

* Elvis “The Terminator” Dumervil – Come on! The guy is less than 6ft tall and STILL crashing the line! I LOVE him!

* Jay “Young Gun” Cutler – He’s young but he’s learning. I’ve been very impressed with the developement of Cutler over the course of this season. I think anyone calling for Mike Shanahan’s head, should consider the fact that Cutler’s ability to produce the numbers he has this season (despite the numerous backup players at key positions) is PURELY because of Shanahan’s tutoring of this young man. Shanahan has coached three different QB’s into the playoffs and Cutler will get his shot too if we give them some time.

* All three of our Rookie D-linemen – Shanahan had a great draft in 2007. I’ve liked everything we’ve seen from our new D-linemen.

So, that’s my quick list. Anyone else have some positive things to say about our 2007 team?

• For anyone without a television, two men and two boys (all of them under 20 year’s old) were arrested this weekend for burglary and the murder of Washington Redskin safety Sean Taylor. I’m glad they got the people responsible, but this in no way lessens the senselessness of this tradegy. Several Broncos are heading to Miami for the services (Nate Webster who worked out in the off-season with Taylor, D.J. Williams and Chris Myers who played at Miami with him and fullback Cecil Sapp who grew up with Taylor). [ESPN story & Video]
• And speaking of legal matters, Denver’s third string QB Darrell Hackney applogized after the game for his arrest on Saturday for suspicion of drunk driving – anyone have BVP’s number? [Denver Post]
• Travis Henry played though his knee injury when Selvin Young went out, but he doesn’t blame the injury for the turnover. [Denverbroncos.com & Denver Post]
• And, as expected, there are a slew of articles all of the place on the horrible state of the Broncos. The Denver Post leads off with Woody Page’s positive article titled: “This game was one obscene mess” , Kliz says “the football team is dead” and even the Rocky Mountain News gets in on the Broncos-bashing with a nice article called “Broncos showed their worth . . . and it wasn’t much”. They also confirm that our playoff hopes are dimming – Really?! I hadn’t noticed.

Sorry, folks for not getting this up prior to the game. It was a frustrating game, and I wasn’t near a computer to blog this one (which was probably a good thing).

What’s there to say about this game…

We’ll have some more stuff up soon, but until then chime in and let us know what you thought!

Injury Report for the Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders for Week 13 in the NFL, December 2, 2007.

Denver Broncos

OUT
RB Andre Hall (Knee)

QUESTIONABLE
WR Glenn Martinez (Ankle)
WR Javon Walker (Knee)

PROBABLE
RB Travis Henry (Knee)
DE John Engelberger (Shoulder)
S John Lynch (Ribs)
P Tood Sauerbrun (Hamstring)
FP Paul Smith (Probable)
WR Brandon Stokley (Knee)
RB Selvin Young (Knee)

Slant – Javon Walker being downgraded to questionable is news, but hardly a surprise. … Two healthy running backs in Denver is a rare commodity these days.

Oakland Raiders

OUT
S Jarrod Cooper (Knee)

QUESTIONABLE
QB Daunte Culpepper (Quadricep)

PROBABLE
DE Derrick Burgess (Achilles)
LB Isaiah Ekejiuba (Ankle)
C Jake Grove (Knee)
QB Josh McCown (L Finger)
S Stuart Schewigert (Calf)

Slant – Danute Culpepper‘s sudden injury has thrust QB Josh McCown into the starting lineup, which means the Broncos could likely see JaMarcus Russell some time in Sunday’s game.