Are we seeing a Broncos turnaround?

Three weeks ago, the Broncos were dead in the water. A bye week in which we were supposed to heal up was followed by more injuries. Champ Bailey went out, we lost to a sputtering New England team and a resurgent Miami team that is not the 1-15 disaster that people expected but neither are they considered a really good team.

But then, a week ago, two things happened. One, Eddie Royal sparked a fourth quarter resurgence in the offense and suddenly the high powered offense we thought was lost in week 4 seemed to come back. Two, the defense started playing better against the run. They didn’t play great that game, but they did a passable job and they held the game close enough that the offense was able to get back into the game in the fourth quarter.

Denver’s offense is a strange, off balanced beast. The passing game is absolutely incredible. While the offense was sputtering, a lot of people talked smack about Cutler making poor decisions, about Marshall being too egotistical. Joey Porter talked smack about getting into Marshall’s head. But the Broncos have lacked a solid running game, especially once the injuries really started to mount. Pittman looked like he was going to carry the running game, but it didn’t happen. The offensive line excels in pass protection but has not done nearly as well at creating running lanes to let the cut back runners pull off huge chunks of yardage. Without a serious running game, the passing game is easier to defend. Double coverage on Marshall and tighter coverage on Royal, plenty of safeties over the top and Cutler can be left without options.

Desperate to make up for a flagging defense and excessive turnovers by the offense, Cutler tried to jam balls into places they just shouldn’t have gone. Linebackers closed passing lanes, making it difficult to throw short middle. He still racked up the yardage but the mistakes built up.

In Cleveland, Ryan Torain came back, and got an impressive 68 yards before going out in the second quarter, alas for the year. Hillis filled in for him and got the tough yardage when it was needed most, and looked like he might be a power option.

In Atlanta, Hillis proved that he can be the power option. he had the fight and he got tough yards in a mass of people. Tatum Bell and PJ Pope provided the speedy relief, and the offensive line created a couple of nice cutback lanes allowing both of them to put up prototypical Broncos runs like we haven’t been seeing so much this season.

And the defense? From the beginning, the Broncos sold out to try to prevent the run. A safety — usually Marlon McCree — played closer to the box to sell out to the run. This mean that the corners played with less support. For Champ Bailey, this isn’t a problem. Nobody not named Rivers is willing to challenge Bailey anyway. But for Bly, it’s a huge problem. Bly wants to play man coverage. He wants to stick to his man like glue, shadow him and have a shot at the ball. But man coverage is susceptible to the double move and if Bly miscalculates, there’s a 5 yard gap and a touchdown. This only works if you have safety coverage to take care of these mistakes. But with McCree playing down in the box, you don’t have this, so Bly was forced to play a softer coverage, always keeping the receiver in front of him. His orders: “Make the tackle.” In other words, give up the play but not the big play.

Once Bailey went out, we started to see Bly playing a lot more tight man coverage. We saw Bly getting chances at the ball and a safety (usually Calvin Lowry) in coverage protecting Bly. This has meant Bly has been able to make more passes defensed. Not as many as we would like, mind you, Quinn still had a fantastic completion percentage, and Ryan wasn’t too bad either. But the character of the defense has been a little different.

More importantly, the linemen have been much better at holding their assignments, filling the lanes they’re supposed to fill and leaving the linebackers free to get to the ball carrier. We are seeing a lot fewer runs get big yardage — though Turner still broke off a 28 yard run for a TD — and we’re doing it without committing a safety in run coverage nearly as much. Instead, the linebackers are getting the primary responsibility for run defense. The benefit is that the pass coverage is improving somewhat.

Are we seeing the Broncos turn a corner? Think about it. Right now, the team is 6-4 with a 2 game lead on San Diego, and we currently have the head to head against them. Unfortunately, due to an inexplicable meltdown against the Chiefs, the Chargers actually have a slight advantage in the division. That said, a quick breakdown of the schedule suggests that thanks to San Diego losing to Pittsburgh today, the Chargers have a seriously uphill battle to win the division. With six losses, they cannot afford to lose more than one more game to have a reasonable shot.

Denver faces both the Chiefs and the Raiders at home. They have to win both of these games. They are both winnable; neither team is currently competetive. The Raiders are perhaps not as bad as the Lions, but they are a team in disarray with no discipline and no direction. The Chiefs are a young team rebuilding and not currently a cohesive unit, capable of winning. In fact, the only victory they have is against the Broncos, and this time we’ll get them at home and do you think the team will want revenge? Oh yes.

Assuming both of those games go well, we also face the Jets, Carolina and Buffalo, and only Buffalo is at home. Of the three, the Jets are the most dangerous team, but they’re all doing better this season than would have been expected. These three games are, I think, a true test of where the team really is, and whether or not the theoretical corner has been turned. If we’re the average team that we have appeared, we’ll probably win one of these. If we’re a good team we’ll win two. If we’re a far, far better team than we have shown, we’ll win all three. If we do that, the game at San Diego doesn’t matter.

Finally, if the Broncos lose only one of the five games mentioned above, the last game of the season will not matter unless the Chargers are able to run the table. Even then, with the Chargers sputtering the way they are right now, they don’t look like a team that’s actually better than the Broncos, even on their bad games.

Now, this is kind of a sunny day scenario. We have to beat two of the Jets, Bills and Panthers for this to happen. That said, if we can’t beat two of those three, then we won’t beat anyone in the playoffs, either.

It’s too soon to say if the Broncos have turned a corner yet. These games were both very close. The fantastic play of the rookies in relief of the starters isn’t necessarily going to carry through to the next games. A big dose of reality suggests that the corner is possibly an illusion. I think we’ll know November 30th in New York, though. If these Broncos can put up a good game against the Jets, a team which is doing very well and is very likely to get a playoff spot, then we’ll know for sure. While every game is a must win game, the Jets are the best team still on the docket, and possibly the best team we will have played all season. In order to be taken seriously as a team, that game must go well.

There are some very encouraging signs, though, and it feels good to have some cautious optimism after the two weeks around the bye week took the wind out of fan’s sails.