Looking Ahead at the Schedule – Weeks 15-17

We’ve taken a sneak peek at weeks 7-10 and weeks 11-14 of the Broncos schedule. Time to finish up with the final 3 weeks of the season, which could be critical if the Broncos want to make the playoffs.

I’ve predicted a 5-3 mark down this 8 game stretch. That would bring us to 7-5 and dangerously on the playoff edge. After poor showings this past week, the Bears and Titans give me hope for victory, but we’ll still need to take care of business to finish the season strong in order to make that big push.

Week 15 – @ Houston Texans (3-3, 2-1 home)

Average Points Scored: 22.2 (12th NFL)
Average Points Allowed: 22.7 (18th NFL)
Remaining Schedule: TEN, @SD, @OAK, BYE, NO, @CLE, @TEN, TB

The Gary Kubiak Bowl. The Rick Smith Bowl. No, the Jeb Putzier Bowl! There’s no doubt this Thursday Night game on NFL Network will be personal for all the front office brass involved. It’s hard not to think of the Texans as the little brother of the Broncos, but our first matchup against our former offensive coordinator and scouting boss (and tight end) will be all about the Texans proving themselves to the Broncos.

After a huge start, the best in franchise history, the Texans have gone 1-3 after treading through a tough schedule and being decimated by injuries. Andre Johnson should be healthy and playing long before our Week 15 matchup. Matt Schaub looks like the real deal, and once their running back crew is healthy they could pose a real threat offensively.

They were playing better defense through the first three weeks of the season, but have struggled to stop the run or pass lately. This has the feeling of a shootout written all over it. I like the Broncos 41-35.

Week 16 – @ San Diego Chargers (3-3, 2-1 home)

Average Points Scored: 22.8 (11th NFL)
Average Points Allowed: 19.8 (15th NFL)
Remaining Schedule: BYE, HOU, @MIN, IND, @JAC, BAL, @KC, @TEN, DET

This, more than any other on our schedule, has become a must-win. Looking at the Chargers schedule, they have a lot of tough games ahead of them (IND, @JAC, BAL, @KC). The sleeping giant has been awoken to some extent, but they’re not the same team as last year, this much is clear. They now lead the AFC West, but only by a thread. However, if we can’t win this game they will own the tiebreaker over us, and it’s hard to conjure a scenario where the AFC West sends a wild card to the playoffs. No, this is a must win game, plain and simple.

To say Ladainian Tomlinson has burst onto the 2007 scene would be an understatement. Nearly 400 yards in two games, complemented by half a dozen touchdowns, and you can see he’s back in MVP form. Can they keep this momentum going for 8 or 9 more weeks before they play the Broncos? No, I don’t believe they can. Norv Turner will blow a game or two before then, and hopefully he’ll choke against us too. I’m afraid we might need it in order to beat these guys – if the Chargers are playing at 100% and on fire, they’re nearly impossible to beat. Especially if we keep kicking ourselves in the foot like we have all year.

If we win the games I’ve predicted, Week 1 of the Broncos playoffs starts here. Win or go home.

Week 17 – Minnesota Vikings (2-3, 1-2 away)

Average Points Scored: 20.2 (16th NFL)
Average Points Allowed: 18.0 (13th NFL)
Remaining Schedule: @DAL, PHI, SD, @GB, OAK, @NYG, DET, @SF, CHI, MIN

I’ll be honest – this game scares the crap out of me. Even before Adrian Peterson‘s huge game yesterday, this game scares the living crap out of me. Solid running game (now ranked 1st in the NFL). Solid run defense (ranked 2nd). They won’t need to throw the ball more than 10 times to cause the Broncos all sorts of problems, so you can pretty much take the quarterback factor out of the equation. They’re huge defensive line will cause our young guys problems.

I’m scared to death of the Vikings. I’d hate to have a repeat of 2006 – win and we’re in, the final game of the year, and blow it against a lesser opponent. I just keep seeing Steve Hutchinson completely destroying our DTs en route to taking out linebacker after linebacker. How do we stop this guy? How do we stop Adrian Peterson?

The way to beat the Vikings is through the air, where they rank last in pass defense (allowing over 280 yards per game). Jay Cutler to Walker and Marshall all day. We don’t need the big play to beat them, we need to have long, sustained drives through the air. Can Cutler do it at this stage in his career? Our season may be banking on it.

I can’t even predict the last two games of the season. There’s still so much football to play between then and now, with so many factors to include. I’ll say this – if we were playing either game this Sunday I wouldn’t be optimistic.

I’m not giving up on this season yet. I still believe we can be a really, really good football team in 2007. The toughest part of our schedule is over (or almost over); it’s time to settle in and take care of business.