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Published on 12/12/2009 at Sat Dec 12 08:00.
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Should Indy take a knee vs. Denver?

Posted Sat Dec 12th by

Quarterback Peyton Manning #18 of the Indianapolis Colts drops back to pass the football in the first half against the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Field on December 6, 2009 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Scott Boehm/Getty Images)

Should the Colts take a dive against Denver Sunday to possibly avoid another January San Diego upset? (Scott Boehm/Getty Images)

The 8-4 Denver Broncos and 12-0 Indianapolis Colts are preparing for quite a game this Sunday, but it might behoove the Colts to think twice before pursuing 13-0. The New York Times’ Fifth Down Blog points out that putting the Broncos two games back in the AFC West race wouldn’t be doing Indy any favors come January.

(A) win clinches home-field advantage for the playoffs — but a loss could benefit the Colts in the long run. The Colts’ nemesis is the Chargers, who beat them in the 2007 and 2008 playoffs and in the 2007 regular season. The Chargers have not won the A.F.C. West yet and are always one mistake from a minislump; the Broncos have the Raiders and Chiefs on their schedule (as well as the Eagles) and could retake the division with a hot streak.

So if the Colts win, they host the playoffs. If they lose, they could help the Broncos win the division, and force the Chargers to travel someplace like New England or Cincinnati for a first-round playoff game. No wonder Peyton Manning seems so relaxed.

At first we rolled our eyes at this theory. After we let it sink in, though, The Times’ harebrained scheme actually makes a bit of sense. QB Peyton Manning has been forced to an early exit out of the playoffs every time he’s faced the Chargers. This includes last year, when his 12-4 team traveled to 8-8 San Diego and were shocked in overtime. The idea of avoiding those powder blues in the playoffs must be appealing.

Losing this game wouldn’t hurt the Colts’ chances in the long run, either. Taking a look at the Colts’ schedule reveals that every remaining opponent is from the AFC (@JAC, NYJ, @BUF). This means that the Colts can win any one of those games and clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs — it doesn’t have to be this week.

Losing this week, though, may be the Colts’ only chance for a nice little consolation prize.

Week 14 NFL Matchups [NYT Fifth Down Blog] [via]

  • robtink242

    This article from the Fifth down is simply guys out thinking themselves. I never been coach to loose games and i'm pretty sure NFL aren't. It's crazy to think that who ever wrote that article should rethink. But then again the Pat's lost 2 games this season from stupid calls.

  • kerry

    i want the Colts to play their best. that way IF we beat them there wont be any excuses as to why.

  • IanHenson

    I know that it's ridiculous, but I remember in the Shanahan reign I felt like we held back against teams at one point or another. Purely speculation of course, but anyone remember losing to the Giants after going 13-0? May have been just us being out coached by our former offensive coordinator, but that season we'd scored at least thirty points in all but three games and only scored 16 (our lowest of the year) that game. The next week we lost 21-31 to the Miami Dolphins, only to blow them out three weeks later in the playoffs 38-3.

    Also, think back to 2004, week 17 the Broncos won pretty convincingly 33-14 against the Colts. Only to face the Colts the next week in the Wild Card and have them stomp us 49-24. So I wouldn't put it past them… Maybe there's a point, it's all a chess match really.

  • mikebirty

    I can't see Indy taking any risks if there were any injuries but you play to win every week. BUT Denver's looked like a team that plays well on a roll so if the Colts think there's a change Denver could seriously win a playoff game or two then they'll be back in Indy sooner or later so I can't see the Colts showing their full hand just in case.

    Either way, this is the first time for a while where the Broncos are going against the Colts with at least an outside chance of a win.

  • Pete

    Simply put, Peyton Manning would never disgrace the game of football by undermining the integrity of the game by throwing a game. IMPOSSIBLE! Looks like we'll have to beat the Colts the old fashioned way, by playing better than them.

  • WhidbeyBronco

    silly

  • Plato

    Also remember that Jim Sorgi got 90% of the reps that game.

  • Pete

    exactly. and if memory serves, he was only in for, what, 2 drives? And I THINK he got at least a FG out of one of them, maybe both of them. So it isn't like we exactly “stopped” them.
    But that's neither here, nor there. Different team, different coaches, different year.
    GO BRONCOS!!!

  • johnnyg523

    http://talksportsphilly.com/?p=1322

    ^^^^analysis on the bears and several other week 14 games

  • IanHenson

    Doesn't that solidify my point?

  • steeplebomb

    “Analysis” is a strong word. These guys may be smart, but this link is a dud. Only two picks, both on games that have a relatively wide spread already. I could have written this…

  • TheTroglodyte

    The year we beat the Colts before the wild card was because they already had home field advantage wrapped up and that is why they played Jim Sorgi. They don't have homefield yet and whether they are going to admit it or not, you know those guys would love to have an unbeaten season. They won't lay down on this game. Not a chance.

  • TheTroglodyte

    The year we beat the Colts before the wild card was because they already had home field advantage wrapped up and that is why they played Jim Sorgi. They don't have homefield yet and whether they are going to admit it or not, you know those guys would love to have an unbeaten season. They won't lay down on this game. Not a chance.