BT Scout: San Diego Chargers

Philip Rivers put up a 50-burger against the Broncos the last time they played in Qualcomm. He won't tonight. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

Each week, we throw records, hype, momentum, and stats (somewhat) out the window and break down the upcoming opponent the old fashioned way: studying film. Join us as we scout this week’s foe, the San Diego Chargers.

The Denver Broncos can beat the San Diego Chargers.

To me, this is a game that will be won or lost in the second half. The Broncos have been phenomenal in the third and fourth quarters, shutting down every opponent they’ve faced and allowing only seven points all season. The Chargers have been equally impressive after halftime, tallying a comeback win against Oakland and nearly doing the same in Week Four after trailing 28-0 against Pittsburgh.

I watched both of these games live at the time and recorded since, and the first thing that comes to mind is that not all of that was an offensive surge — the Chargers have made big plays on defense and special teams to mount those efforts. The ball bounced their way a few times (or, more accurately, was thrown their way by one JaMarcus Russell), but it’s safe to say these Chargers won’t quit until the final whistle blows.

Even if they’re leading in the fourth quarter, the Broncos can’t rely on their stingy second half defense for the win. There are too many intangibles going into this game — too much at stake, too much “back against the wall” mentality, and too much horrid history at Qualcomm — for the Broncos to feel comfortable with a moderate lead. Denver needs to be up, and up big — I’m talking 14 points or more — in the fourth quarter to seal the deal in San Diego.

Chargers Defense

The Chargers’ defense wasn’t that good in 2008. In 2009, after the loss of NT Jamal Williams and a slew of backups, it’s even worse. They’ve been mixing guys in to his position, primarily Ogemdi Nwagbuo, but the backups have been getting blown off the ball. Where Williams used to take up two blockers most of the time, a single-man matchup has consistently been able to push the Chargers’ middle several feet back.

The Steelers exploited this and got their ground game going in Week Four, something Pittsburgh has struggled with until then. Several times their lead blocker (coincidentally, also their backup center, a strategy the Broncos have employed with Russ Hochstein since Spencer Larsen was knocked out) was able to come completely clean through the defensive line and make a block at the second level, resulting in big gains.

But the middle of that defensive line isn’t the only problem: the linebackers are constantly caught in overpursuit, not demonstrating gap discipline, and getting blown out of plays.

In fact, they look a lot like the 2008 Broncos.

Enter Correll Buckhalter. Buck is at least 90%, is definitely playing tonight, and has been averaging over seven yards per carry. I don’t see how the Chargers hold Buck (and Knowshon Moreno) to under 150 yards if the Broncos come out determined to pound the rock.

And they should. Not only will it wear out the Chargers’ D, but it will keep Philip Rivers off the field.

The concern is that both Buckhalter and Moreno have had bouts of fumbleitis, and the Chargers will certainly try to exploit this. But if the RB’s can hold on to the football they should find plenty of room to roam in San Diego.

Quick Hits: Antonio Cromartie couldn’t handle Brandon Marshall last year and nothing I’ve seen this year suggests he could now… Will McDaniels and Orton try to test that secondary after the team released Clinton Hart? I know I would… This is the first time Ryan Clady and Shawne Merriman will meet. Merriman says he’s fully healthy for the first time this season after the bye, so look for an interesting matchup there…

Chargers Offense

San Diego’s offense is the story of Philip Rivers overcoming his offensive line’s struggles to produce big numbers.

It’s also the story of Vincent Jackson, deep and over the middle.

You won’t see a lot of sideline routes for Jackson, but he’s made a number of highlight-reel plays over the middle, with or without tight coverage. They’ve lined him up both wide and in the slot when running these routes, trying to cause mismatches (and succeeding in doing so).

Rivers’ throw is often teased for its tendency to float, but it gives the Chargers a distinct advantage in the deep ball department. In a game of inches/seconds, Rivers doesn’t need to wait incredibly long for the big play to develop. He can toss a deep bomb after a five-step drop, as opposed to a riskier seven-step drop, and float the football to a big gain anyway. The effect is exaggerated here, but it exists nonetheless. Several of the Chargers’ big plays didn’t give the pass rush a lot of time to get to the quarterback like you see against other teams.

So coverage will be key. Rivers can overcome pass rush. He isn’t easily rattled, and he can deliver a football with insane precision even as an opposing linebacker pummels him.

And they will pummel him. The Chargers’ offensive line has struggled all season, and the Broncos boast one of the league’s best pass rushes. But the Chargers have put up big numbers in the air anyway. No one has been able to cover Jackson AND Gates AND effectively shut down Rivers’ outlet, Darren Sproles.

Quick Hits: It’s true that San Diego’s running game ranks 32nd in the league, but the Chargers expect Bronco-killer Ladainian Tomlinson back, and visions of Sproles tallying 300-something yards against the Broncos last year still keep me awake at night. The Chargers’ OL won’t get that type of push against this DL, though….

Prediction

This is a should-win game for the Broncos. But this is also their trickiest game of the year, every year, and the Chargers are desperate. I expect some wild plays and a furious finish by San Diego, and I fully expect half of this scouting report to be rendered meaningless by the type of unpredictability we’ve come to expect from this rivalry (see: Ed Hochuli).

But I think these Immaculate-Deflection-Welcome-Back-Big-Boy Broncos will pull out a few crazy plays of their own, just enough to win. BT Staffer J. Kenneth K. picked the Broncos 27-14… I’m thinking right along the same lines, but I think something crazy will happen in the fourth quarter, and the Chargers will storm back. I’m rolling with 27-23 Broncos, protecting their lead with a fourth quarter goal line stand after a big Darren Sproles return.

Hey, I was right last week.