Lions Can’t Help us; Broncos Playoff Hopes Depend on Raiders Beating Chargers

Yes, Broncos fans. The Lions beating the Chargers this week won’t help us. All our hopes for the AFC West rests on the Raiders beating the Chargers in Oakland in Week 17.

The Chargers are sitting pretty at 8-5 and in control of their own destiny. With three games remaining (Detroit, Denver, at Oakland), and none of their opponents currently owning a winning record, all signs point to the Bolts taking the AFC West for the third time in four years and second straight.

They escaped a dominating Tennessee Titans performance with an overtime comeback win after trailing 14 points in the fourth quarter, maintaining their 2-game lead over the Denver Broncos (6-7).

With the Jaguars and Browns looking like the most likely candidates for the AFC Wild Card spots, and the Bills and Titans also a game ahead of Denver, it’s extremely likely the only chance for the Broncos to make the playoffs is to win the division. But they’ll need help.

The Broncos can deliver San Diego a loss on Christmas Eve when they had to Qualcomm Stadium, but it won’t be enough. The Chargers will then need to lose to either the Lions or the Raiders in Weeks 15, 17 respectively to drop to 9-7. The Broncos need to win the rest of their games (all opponents have at least 6 wins) to match that record.

Then the NFL tiebreakers kick in, which go in order like this (remember, this is assuming the Broncos win out and the Chargers lose at least one other game. If you’re superstitious, yes, I’m playing with fire here):

1. Head-to-Head (tied 1-1)

2. Division Record (SD either 4-2 or 3-3; DEN 4-2)

3. Record vs. Common Opponents (SD 7-5, DEN 6-6)

In this 9-7 tiebreaker scenario, the Broncos and Chargers would split the season series and have to move on to the next rounds of tiebreakers to determine the winner. Depending on if the potential upset team is the Lions or the Chiefs, the results of the tiebreaker will be very different.

Scenario One – Chargers Beat Lions; Lose Final Two Weeks to Broncos, Raiders – Final Season Record: 9-7. Their earlier loss to the Chiefs would drop their division record to 3-3, giving the Broncos the edge. This is the scenario the Broncos are hoping for – that the Raiders’ impressive performances against the Chiefs and Broncos in Weeks 12 and 13 were no flukes. If the Raiders can pull the upset (at home, mind you), the Broncos would steal the division and head into the postseason.

Scenario Two – Chargers Lose to Lions, Broncos; Beat Raiders – Final Season Record: 9-7. The first tiebreaker, division record, would be a draw with the Broncos at 4-2. The next tiebreaker, common opponents, would actually give the edge to the Chargers. The teams have 12 games with common opponents (4 AFC West, 4 AFC South, 4 NFC North games). In those 12 games, the Broncos would be 6-6, the Chargers would be 7-5 (thanks Indianapolis/Adam Vinatieri).

So even if the Chargers lose to the Lions AND Broncos, they would still win the AFC West.

In other words, all of hour hopes for a January 2007 rests on the Raiders beating the Chargers in the last week of the year.

Personally, I’m just hoping the Broncos play solid football, like I saw yesterday, for the last three weeks of the season and finish strong. Beat solid teams in the Texans, Chargers, and Vikings. Then let the chips fall where they may (hey, we might even sneak in as a Wild Card – it’s unlikely with 4 teams ahead of us, but it’s not impossible with our own tiebreaker edges against the Titans and Bills).

Winning out is no small task – these are tough teams that are all coming on strong at the end of the year. If we’re stuck at home at 9-7 for the second straight year, at least I’ll take comfort knowing that this team played hard, and well, for the last 4 games of the season. Look out 2008.