Looking Ahead at the Schedule – Weeks 11-14

Part 2 of my series looking ahead at the Broncos schedule, and our chances to win. If you missed yesterday’s edition scroll down or check it out here – Weeks 7-10.

The bottom line with these four games is simple – we’ve got to win the close games. Teams like the Bears and Titans are struggling in their own ways, and we will have to put a better product on the field to compete with these teams.

Week 11 – Tennessee Titans (3-1, 2-0 away)

Average Points Scored: 21.0 (16th NFL)
Average Points Allowed: 14.8 (6th NFL)
Remaining Schedule: @TB, @HOU, OAK, CAR, JAC

The Broncos’ second foray into Monday Night Football this season will be touted as the clash of the draft class, as quarterbacks Vince Young and Jay Cutler will square off in the first meeting between the two 2006 first round draft picks. Hidden behind the Vince Young spotlight is the Tennessee defense, which is quietly coming together to form one of the bigger playmaking defenses in the league. Across the league, they rank 6th in points allowed, 5th in yards, and 3rd in run defense.

Vince Young didn’t amaze people through the air last year – the plays he made on the ground helped lead the Titans to a remarkable 8-4 finish after starting 0-4 last year. His stats thus far – 62/100 (62%) for 583 yards with 3 TDs and 5 INTs, and a quarterback rating of 67.2. Rushing however, he’s carried the rock 29 times for 123 yards and a touchdown.

It’s the running game of the Titans, along with the solid defense, that will cause the Broncos fits. I don’t see our defense having much of a chance once Young takes off, and I can see our offensive line struggling against the Tennessee playmakers on their defensive line (particularly Albert Haynesworth in the middle and Kyle Vanden Bosch on the edge). This one scares me – I think we could end up losing big by double digits in our current state. If we’ve righted the ship we could pull out a win. Vince Young might give us the game too – he threw three picks last week and could throw more against our corners. Right now though, I’m guessing 27-17 Titans win with very few passing plays.

Week 12 – @ Chicago Bears (2-3, 1-2 away)

Average Points Scored: 17.4 (22nd NFL)
Average Points Allowed: 23.0 (21st NFL)
Remaining Schedule: MIN, @PHI, DET, BYE, @OAK, @SEA

The Bears are hoping their big win in Green Bay will be the launching point for the rest of their season. Looking at their schedule up to their bye, you could easily conjure up a scenario where they win the next 3 and head into Oakland at 5-3. Depending on how legit the Raiders are, and how well the Seahawks bounce back from their tough shutout loss last week, they may win both their next or lose both. I’d guess 1-1 and say they’ll be heading strong in their game against the Broncos at around 6-4.

In other words, they’ve had a tough schedule so far and look to bounce back big by the time they face Denver.

Their defense is beat up and bad at that. If they’re healthy by the time the Broncos come into town we could be in trouble. And if Brian Griese is starting for the Bears, Broncos fans always have to consider the Jilted Quarterback angle. That’s been an X-Factor in games in the past.

Their offense strikes no fear in my heart, even if Cedric Benson had a decent game last week. As good as their offensive line is, Benson just hasn’t shown the fire you’d want in a running back, or willingness to hit the hole and pound it. I don’t fear their passing game – defensively, we could really cause them problems (better worded – they won’t get out of their own way?). This one could go either way, I’d guess both teams will be playing better football than they are now. Bears at home, I’ll give them the edge 16-13.

Week 13 – @ Oakland Raiders (2-2, 1-1 home)

Average Points Scored: 25.5 (6th NFL)
Average Points Allowed: 25.0 (24th NFL)
Remaining Schedule: @SD, KC, @TEN, HOU, CHI, @MIN, @KC

The Timeout. I wouldn’t be surprised if our Week 2 victory over the Raiders is remembered in lore by that name from now on.

You have never heard me say “We could easily be 0-5 right now.” Or that we should be. We deserved to win both those games by many more points than we did, but fluke special teams and defensive plays kept our opponents in games. We missed 3 field goals. We allowed a punt return, a safety, and an interception return for a touchdown, giving our opponents 17 points. Not to mention an onside kick. Tidy those mistakes and we’re talking about 26 points we don’t give the Bills and Raiders.

The Raiders are playing decent football, I’m just not buying into them being a legitimate team. They’ve stomped on the Dolphins and Browns and lost to the Lions and Broncos. They’re better than last year, but not that much better. They may be ranked first in rushing in the league, but looking at the teams they’ve played, you’ll find some of the lowest rush defenses in the league.

WE WILL WIN THIS GAME. Daunte Culpepper had five touchdowns last week, but the untold story is he threw for less than 80 yards. And he was playing the Dolphins, probably the absolute worst defense in the league (yes, worse than ours). We’ll go into the Black Hole and shut the Raiders up, plain and simple. I can’t fathom losing to them. I can’t. We should have scored 40 points against them last time and held them to the 10 points they scored on offense.

35-17 Broncos.

Week 14 – Kansas City Chiefs (2-3, 1-2 away)

Average Points Scored: 12.6 (31st NFL)
Average Points Allowed: 16.6 (9th NFL)
Remaining Schedule: CIN, @OAK, BYE, GB, DEN, OAK, SD

I broke down the Chiefs last time, so check that one out. We’ll win this one at home, too.

Last time I predicted we’d go 3-1, moving us up to 5-4. I’m seeing 2-2 here likely, although if we’ve improved we could easily go 3-1 or 4-0. So many factors, including injuries most especially, that could skew these games either way (I mean, what if Vince Young goes down before then? How much do we fear the Titans then?). I’d see us at about 7-6 at this point, dangerously close to being out of the playoff race.