Packers @ Broncos – Breaking Down the Game

Five Steps to Win or Lose the Game has been disbanded, simply because I’d rather just tell you about the matchups, the X’s and O’s, and how the Broncos can win without a five-step list to restrict my thoughts or slow me down. Enjoy.

When the Packers have the ball

Stop the run. From a strict statistics perspective, the Packers play to the Broncos’ strengths. They can’t run the football, but know how to pass it, while the Broncos excel in pass defense and have struggled against the run. However, just as the Broncos seemed to improve their rush defense during the bye, I have no doubt the Packers’ main priority over their bye was to get their ground game going.

After all, they adopted the zone blocking scheme of our own Broncos last season to moderate success, and Brett Favre is coming off 6 horrible quarters of football. If the Packers were ever to find their running game, this would be the game to do it. Just as John Lynch expects the Packers to run the ball, I do too, so the main priority will be for the Broncos to shut this aspect of their offense down.

Keep screen passes short. The Broncos have been allowing big plays to come off short screen passes, and this simply needs to stop. This is on the linebackers – particularly Ian Gold and Nate Webster, who will need to play disciplined football on the outside against the short passing game of the Packers. Favre will look for tight end Donald Lee in the red zone – the Broncos have given up 6 touchdowns to the tight end position, and will need to address this with better linebacker and safety coverage.

Pressure Favre into mistakes. He’s thrown more interceptions than anyone, and we need the defensive line to step up and perform like they did in Pittsburgh for four quarters to force these mistakes out of Brett. With Champ Bailey (who should be good to go) playing on an island, the Packers may try to fake out Dre Bly with a trick play or two. Pressuring Favre before the play can be set up (like John Lynch’s clutch pressure against the Steelers in a situation last week) will be the key to preventing the long pass.

When the Broncos have the ball

Run outside to set up the inside run. The defensive line of the Packers is solid. They have stout defensive tackles that eat up blockers, making it difficult to run on the inside. While the defense may be familiar with the zone blocking scheme in practice, they have not played a team that employs that scheme in a real game since 2005. The Broncos will need to stretch this defense to set up the interior run, which means they will need to run stretch plays to the outside. The Packers start pass rush threats at defensive end who have been burned in the running game; the Broncos need to exploit this to set up the rest of our offense.

Protect Jay Cutler. The Packers and Broncos offer two of the best cornerback tandems in the league, but they execute these coverages in different ways. The Broncos have a shutdown man who plays on an island and another player who excels in man coverage but can bite on the pump fake. The Packers play press coverage – for five yards past the line of scrimmage the will rustle the feathers of the Broncos receivers. Brandon Marshall, at 6-4, 230 lbs., should have no problem handling the physicality of Al Harris and Charles Woodson. Can we say the same about the 5-11, 192 lb. Brandon Stokley, or the 6-2, 183 lb. Glenn Martinez? If the Packers corners can slow these receivers down, Jay Cutler may be in risk of coverage sacks.

The offensive line, banged up as it may be, will be tested as these receivers could struggle to gain separation from their coverage. Aaron Kampman could be particularly brutal if Erik Pears struggles. To compensate, the Broncos need to look toward a position that has been coming back onto the scene in Denver.

Get the tight ends involved. Tony Scheffler may be the biggest receiver of the night, and that would be fine with me. Short screen passes to Scheffler, along with an interior running game, could see the Packers safeties begin to creep up and put eight in the box. Daniel Graham should line up to help block Kampman and keep Cutler on his feet.

Special Teams

Neither team has a stellar return game, and the Broncos showed improvement in coverage. I don’t anticipate this being a factor, although Jason Elam has been clutch when needed.

The Prediction

No more 3-point wins. I think the Broncos shut down the Packers running game, while the Broncos pose the biggest challenge for the Packers rush defense thus far. Broncos win the turnover battle, run the ball and have a few big plays en route to a 31-21 victory.