Pick ‘Em Monday – AFC South

Pick ’em Mondays on BroncoTalk continues, and today the AFC South is under debate. This is the first division I’ve covered that will face the Broncos this season, meaning that at some point during the season we will play the Colts, Jaguars, Texans and Titans. And while the top dog is easy to determine, ranking the bottom 3 wasn’t nearly as easy. You could make a case for each and every team to make it to spot 2 or 3 – but in the end, like I try to do for all of these, I look at talent over last year’s wins. On to the picks!

1) Indianapolis Colts

Everyone in Denver is tired of Peyton Manning going up and down the field. Last year, for the first half, it looked like we had finally figured out how to stop the freaking robot when he decided he would throw to Reggie Wayne in between Darrent Williams and John Lynch all day. Touchdown… touchdown… 2-point conversion… touchdown… Broncos fans remember it just as well as I do. The team went on to win the Super Bowl, and they are talented throughout – even without their starting RB, Dominic Rhodes (who gained less yards than backup rookie Joseph Addai), they’ll be fine. Their offensive line has been dominant for years now; they just signed Dwight Freeney to the biggest defensive player contract in history (great move); and a healthy Bob Sanders could help this defense more than anything, despite the pieces they’ve lost in the free agent market. They’re top dog in the AFC South, and while the other three teams are somewhat closing the gap, in all honesty it’s not even close.

2) Houston Texans

Of course I’m a Texans fan – they’re the freaking Houston Broncos for crying out loud. And everyone in Denver pretty much feels similarly, from what I’ve seen – like the kid brother we root for, we all want to see Gary Kubiak succeed (unless our intentions are more selfish, and hoping he fails in order to free him to return to Denver [greedy smile]). But honestly – there’s no position more important than quarterback, and I believe they’ve found their guy in Matt Schaub. Their offensive line improved last year, and another year in the complicated system will help them. They have a clear-cut starting runningback in Ahman Green, who has experience in the zone blocking scheme; they have a ton of talent on the defensive line (several first rounders that need to step up); they have talent at receiver, linebacker, and in the secondary – the pieces are all there to be competitive. Their biggest weakness, again, is the O-Line, and I believe it will improve this year again. Look for 8 or 9 wins and a POSSIBLE playoff spot.

3) Jacksonville Jaguars

Byron Lefwich has a lot of talent – he’s just inconsistent. He’ll have a string of several REALLY GOOD games, but then a few bad games later and the ole quarterback controversy in Jacksonville rears its ugly head. I’m not a David Garrard fan – hell, I’m a bigger Quinn Gray fan, their 3rd-string QB, after watching the Week 17 match in Kansas City. But Leftwich can’t stay healthy, and so this talented team won’t do as well. Their running game could be the best in the league this year, and their defense, although it lost its leader in Donovan Darius to the Raiders, has always been one to be feared (remember the Week 2 shutout of the former Super Bowl champs?). Despite all this, questions at quarterback will cost this team a few games, and I expect a 7-8 win season. Some pundits out there say that this could be a make-or-break year for head coach Jack Del Rio – it would be a huge mistake if they fired this guy before he truly found a quarterback who helped him succeed.

4) Tennessee Titans

I’m just not a Vince Young fan. He ran for a lot of touchdowns last year (7), but that feat will be hard to repeat. Jeff Fisher did little to improve their chances, making him a lame duck coach a la Bill Cowher last year – and I kinda think it’s the same situation as well. Do you almost get the feeling that Fisher wants out of Tennessee, and so spending the way the Broncos did wasn’t part of his plans? If you don’t, I do, and just like a young, promising quarterback didn’t keep Cowher in Pittsburgh, it seems to me like Fisher has had enough. The contract talks haven’t gone anywhere, and so he enters this year without any job security. The moment Fisher is on the market, he’ll get snatched up by the Giants or Redskins or even the Cowboys, who would love that high-profile image. And through all of this drama, I believe the Titans will suffer to a 5 or 6 win season. And let’s say he does get a contract extension some time in the next month or two – to me, that’ll be just too little too late to improve past the Jaguars, or keep up with the wheelin’ and dealin’ Texans.