Pick ‘Em Monday – NFC South

The NFC South got completely flipped on its side in 2006 – almost completely reversing the ranks of each team in the division from the year before. If you haven’t noticed, my rankings are pretty wacky as well – I’ve learned through picking division winners throughout the years that sometimes you just have to look at the roster and ignore the wins and losses from the year before.

So when looking at the NFC South, home of the Saints, Panthers, Falcons, and Buccaneers, I’m looking at the roster and ignoring the wins and losses from the year before. And I just might be one of the only NFL fans out there who isn’t flying high with the Saints.

1) Carolina Panthers

You would have to include the Carolina Panthers in the list of “Underachieving Teams” in 2006, along with the Broncos, Bengals and Steelers. They are more talented than their record indicates, and a big part of this was the seeming inexplicable decay of quarterback Jake Delhomme. When I look at the rosters in the division, I would say the Panthers have the best offensive line, the second best quarterback, the second best running back squad, the best wide receiver (possibly in the league), far and away the best defensive line, and solid linebacker corps. and secondary. You can’t look at any point, besides perhaps their depth at receiver since cutting Keyshawn Johnson, as a real weakness. Their coach, John Fox, is the best in the division as well. Look for them to bounce back and head into the playoffs as one of the top seeds in the NFC.

2) New Orleans Saints

Drew Brees is a top 3 quarterback in this league, and he almost singlehandedly turned this team around. But other than that, I don’t see a ton of talent – to me, I see overachievers who haven’t shown they can consistently perform at that level day in and day out. Their offensive line was suspect a few years ago – with few changes last year they suddenly performed very well – can that magic continue? At receiver, Marques Colston broke out from the seventh round and impacted every game he played, but can he stay healthy and can he perform when defenses are centered around him. And don’t get me started on the extremely overrated Reggie Bush – I saw nothing last year to suggest the Texans made a mistake skipping him in the draft. On defense they have a huge gaping hole at cornerback, and their linebacker corps. seems to be full of former, no-longer-wanted Eagles (kinda like the Browncos… maybe the Eagaints?). 10-6 wasn’t that impressive to begin with, but they’ll probably make the playoffs thanks to Brees, Coach Peyton and the underrated running ability of Deuce McAllister.

3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Although aging, there’s talent on this defense, and the Bucs always seem to be a yo-yo team that excels one year, then chokes the next. If that’s the case, they’re due to return to a winning form and behind either Chris Simms, Jeff Garcia or even Jake Plummer, they’ll win 7 or 8 games this year and fall just out of the playoffs.

4) Atlanta Falcons

Michael Vick disgusts me… he’ll get suspended for 4 games or so, maybe more, and the Falcons will be quarterback-less since they just traded away Matt Schaub to the Texans for a couple second-rounders. But even past that, I don’t see any real playmakers on this squad. Loud-mouthed Deangelo Hall shut down nobody last year; Warrick Dunn isn’t what he used to be, and Patrick Kerney has found greener pastures in Seattle (although they could have been much greener in Denver, but I digress…). It will be tough for this team to win 4 or 5 games this year, and I’d be floored if they did anything beyond that.

Not as drastic of a fliparound this time – but I expect the Panthers to return to form while the Saints find themselves in the playoffs as the wildcard. Next Monday it’s the AFC South, home of the Super Bowl Champion Indianapolis Colts, along with the Houston Broncos, er Texans. Until then…