Top 10 Reasons We’ll Win the AFC West

The AFC West is ripe for the taking. Year in and year out, it is the most competitive division in the NFL. This year, the Broncos are looking to repeat their performance of 2005, where we won the division for the first time since John Elway retired. There are a lot of reasons we’ll win the west – I list the top ones here.

And next Tuesday I’ll play the devil’s advocate – 10 reasons we WON’T win the West. Should be fun, if not totally inaccurate.

10) The Raiders suck

While I know JaMarcus Russell has a lot of upside, I don’t see him making an impact this year, and I don’t see the Raiders winning even 7 games this year. I EXPECT a sweep of the Raiders series – anything less than 2-0 is unacceptable. While their defense played more consistenly than ours last year, their offense still can’t hold a candle to ours. Sorry, Raider fans – you’re still the bottomfeeders of the AFC West.

9) The End of a Chiefs Era

The Chiefs’ offensive line won’t be the dominant force it has been over the past several years for quite some time – with multiple retirements along the left side, Kansas City is looking at a real weakness up front. Nightmares of Larry Johnson running all over the Broncos in Arrowhead are hopefully long gone – without the Pro Bowl blockers leading the way, Johnson may look more tackleable than ever before.

8) Receiver-Corner Matchups

Champ Bailey on… Samie Parker? Dre Bly covering… Vincent Jackson? The odds are overwhelmingly in the Broncos’ favor to dominate the air game this season, particularly in the West. Now that Randy Moss is out of the division, is there a single receiver who can challenge our cornerback tandem? Jerry Porter of the Raiders would probably be the most talented, and he can’t compete with Bailey or Bly. Look out, West, we’re looking to break the pick record this year.

7) And vice-versa

While it appears stacked on paper, the AFC West cornerbacks are thin once you leave the thin air of the Rockies. Short of Nnamdi Asomugha, who is a rising star and a real threat, there really isn’t anyone who can stop Javon Walker. Ty Law, while leading the league in interceptions in 2005, showed that he is Peyton Manning‘s kryptonite and that’s about it. And Patrick Surtain disappointed to say the least. Finally, the Chargers cornerbacks basically cost them the divisional game last year. No, I expect big things from Walker and Brandon Marshall this year (and of course Rod Smith if healthy).

6) Philip Rivers is overrated

A Pro Bowl for Philip Rivers – are you kidding me? After one year in the league, Rivers posted a 92.0 passer rating, completing over 60% of his passes with 22 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Pretty solid stats, right? Wrong. They didn’t play any pass defenses worth fearing – I mean, no offense to my beloved Broncos, but people were throwing the ball over the place against us last year. Running down their 2006 opponents, there really wasn’t anyone who could get in Rivers’ face and really put pressure on the young QB (except the Ravens and Pats, who both won their respective games). Consider that the Chargers will be facing the Bears, Patriots, and Ravens in the regular season this year – as well as our improved pass rush twice (more on that later) – the Chargers and Rivers may be singing a different tune next year.

5) Improved pass rush

Year in and year out, we are dying for Manning blood… after Eli came back and beat us in 2005, Peyton continued his dominance over us in 2006. Well, a decent pass rush is just what the doctor ordered, and a double dose of Jarvis Moss and Tim Crowder fills our need nicely. As I mentioned above, Philip Rivers better not get comfortable back there, and neither should JaMarcus or Trent or Damon or Andrew. Our biggest weakness over the past 3 years could be a real strength come September.

4) One Injury Away

…from all but guaranteeing an AFC West title. With the Chiefs falling off offensively, and the Raiders stewing in their own stench, Ladainian Tomlinson is one of the only things standing in our way. If he’s hurt, say bye-bye to the Chargers’ 2007 campaign – even with Michael Turner in the fold.

3) Running it down their throats

How will they stop Travis Henry? How? Twice a year, barring injury, the Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers will be trying to square up against the best running game in the NFL. While the Chiefs have improved their defense with additions of Donnie Edwards and Alfonso Boone, I don’t think it’s enough to stop our zone blocking, and the other two teams have either made no changes or lost players. Everyone is expecting big things out of Henry – unfortunately for the other AFC West teams, it’ll likely come at their expense.

2) Coaching Consistency

We are the only team in the AFC West with a coach with a tenure longer than… a year. That’s right. Lane Kiffen and Norv Turner are both new hires, and Herm Edwards has a whole year under his belt as Kansas City coach. Meanwhile, the Broncos have a guy by the name of Mike Shanahan who just happens to have been here for years and year. Consider these teams in a transition – and the Broncos in a state of business as usual.

1) Jay Cutler

…always seems to be the top of these countdowns, huh? Jay has more pressure on him than any other quarterback in Broncos history save Elway himself. Looks like he’s stepping up, too. He put together a brilliant third quarter in his only AFC West showdown in San Diego last year – but Broncos fans need a full four such performances to ensure victory over the AFC West champs. Cutler looks like the real deal, and he’s the biggest reason all of Denver is thinking Super Bowl this year. If he can match the hype, the AFC West will be easily in our grasp.

I love being a part of the best division in football, but I hate losing it just as much. The Broncos need to reassert their dominance by winning it this year.