Top 10 Reasons We Won’t Win the AFC West

A week ago, I gave the Top 10 Reasons We’ll Win the AFC West. So what’s stopping us from doing just that? I’d been planning these two Top 10s for months now, and I’ve been looking forward to doing them back-to-back like this. Some of these reasons are division-specific, i.e., they have to do with the other teams in the AFC West. Some focus on our games elsewhere. And some of them focus on our team itself. If we can overcome these obstacles, we’ll be that much closer to taking the title back from those damned Chargers.

10) Improved Chiefs Defense

With the additions of Alfonso Boone and Donnie Edwards, the Chiefs made it clear that their focus would be on the defensive side of the ball this offseason. While everone’s talking about the fall of their offense (and rightfully so), I wouldn’t sleep on the Chiefs defense. With a solid pass rush in Tamba Hali and Jared Allen both returning this season (although Allen is serving a 4-game suspension), along with the second-best cornerback tandem in the league in Ty Law and Patrick Surtain, it will be hard to throw the ball against the Chiefs. With Boone clogging the middle and Edwards, who I’ve always felt was underrated in San Diego, doing his thing sideline to sideline, I expect the Chiefs defense to be much better than it was in 06.

9) A boy name Croyle

It seems every year, one team in the AFC West is looking toward a quarterback who hasn’t started a game for them to start on Day 1 and lead them to a division title. While last year’s Philip Rivers experiment went wonderfully for San Diego (more on that later), history shows us that the move isn’t always as successful (a la our very own Broncos with Jake Plummer – while a good move, not at that level with the Rivers move). Well, Kansas City is hoping they can catch lightning in a bottle with their second round pick from last year, Brodie Croyle. The Trent Green to Miami saga boringly continues without news, and word from KC is that they are willing to give Croyle is shot over Damon Huard, who performed very well for the Chiefs last year. Originally scouted at the same level as our own Jay Cutler, Croyle could be a star, but injury concerns are very legitimate and Chiefs have to worry if he can stay healthy for that long.

8) The Colts

“Oh, so the Broncos are playing the Colts again this year? Add a mark to the ‘L’ column.” This is how it’s been for years – our only victory against them was in a week 17 means-nothing-for-them but-everything-for-us contest where we ended up playing them the next week and getting our asses handed. As competitive as I expect this division to be (especially between the Chargers and ourselves), we can’t afford to just give up a game to the defending champs this year. We’ve got to exercise our Peyton Manning demons if we’re going to make a splash in the postseason.

7) Cutler doesn’t cut it

Settle down Broncos fans – I’m not spewing heresy over here. It’s just that our own golden boy Jay Cutler has yet to prove himself to me. While he has a big arm and good pocket presence, and his stats are all there (hell, he’s already broken a record), he isn’t a winner yet. At 2-3, he needs to show he can lead this team to victory – if he doesn’t do that, we may be waiting another few years for the next quarterback hero to lead us to glory.

6) 4-4 at home

Last year’s .500 record at home was one of the worst in recent Broncos history. Having gone undefeated in the regular season at home last year, our 2006 campaign saw us lose home games to the Colts, Chargers, Seahawks, and… the 49ers. Mile High is one of the loudest stadiums in the league – if we’re going to contend for this division, 1) we sure as hell can’t lost a home game to a division opponent (we only won the other two by a total of 10 points), and 2) we can’t lose at home, or anywhere, to teams we should beat with ease (ahem Niners).

5) Rivers gets better

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – Philip Rivers didn’t deserve to go to the Pro Bowl last year, his first year as a starter. Frankly, the Chargers babied their offense for the young QB for much of the season, and when more was placed on his shoulders late in the year, his performance fell. Blame Marty Schottenheimer all you want for the divisional lost last year, Chargers fans, but Rivers couldn’t lead the team down the field the way a Brady or Manning did. All that being said, Rivers did play well, and his passer rating reflects that. If he improves, which he likely will, Broncos fans have a lot to worry about, regardless if they don’t have that pass-catching stud everyone thought they needed.

4) Broncos defense

I love our defense, I do – but I was a huge Darrent Williams fan and a huger Al Wilson fan. With changes all around, sometimes it’s hard for a team to adjust, and that’s what I fear could happen to the Broncos defense this year. I love that we’ve added depth and talent all along the defensive line – easily our biggest weakness over the past four years. I’m nervous about D.J. Williams moving inside and the effect that will have on our linebacking corps – our biggest strength over the years. And what if Dre Bly‘s best years are behind him, or he doesn’t adjust to the new scheme? He’ll get picked on just as much as D-Will did. I’m hoping I’m nervous over nothing, but a suspect defense definitely won’t help us get this title.

3) Chargers Defense

Shawne Merriman is among the best defensive players in all of football. The Chargers defense is one of the fiercest in the league – are Jay Cutler and Travis Henry ready to square up against that type of firepower?

2) Tomlinson has another “one of those” years

God forbid Tomlinson improve on his record-breaking season last year.

I don’t even feel going into too much depth on this one – if Ladainian Tomlinson has another special year this year, it would be an insanely tall task to take the division. If he’s running up and down the field like he did in 2006, it means that the Chargers defense is resting and less weight is put on Rivers’ shoulders – all bad news for Broncos fans.

1) Injuries, Injuries, Injuries

The moment Matt Lepsis fell to injury last year, our team changed. 5-2 up to that point, we went 4-5 down the stretch and wound up out of the playoffs for the first time in 4 years (damn that 4-year curse). One wrong turn of the knee for Travis Henry, or one bad tackle that concusses Jay Cutler, and it’s “better luck next year, Broncos.” While I feel our depth is very good all around, this division is simply too stacked to compete with depth for a title. Staying healthy is the trick for any team – with any luck, the Broncos will be able to overcome these obstacles and retake the AFC West crown.

Overall grim tones in the Top 10 today, but it’s important for Broncos fans to understand the obstacles we need to overcome in order to win our division this year. The AFC West, year in and year out, is the most competitive in the league – despite multiple quarterback changes for all four teams over the past few years. This year looks like another great year to be in the AFC West – and if the Broncos can overcome the obstacles above, we’ll have a great chance to do something special in 2007.