Draft Day 2: Ok…. that was unexpected

I’m not sure what to think about this one…

Marcus Thomas — Team Info Page NFL Scouting Report
University of Florida Gators
6′ 2.5″ 314 lbs.
Jacksonville, Florida

We traded several picks (including a 2008 pick) to jump into the fourth round and pick up a kid with an admittedly spotty past. On the surface that appears to be poor judgment; however, there are a couple of things to consider. One, Thomas is the right size and has the right skill set to fit into Bates new D-line. Two, he would have gone somewhere in the first round if he hadn’t missed most of 2006 because of his suspension. Three, there’s a friendly face already in Denver with Jarvis Moss in town.

I think everyone can agree he has a wonderful upside, now the 10 million dollar question is: Was he worth the price?

That depends on three things.

1. Who did Denver miss in this year’s 6th and 7th round and what will they miss in next year’s draft?
This question may be discussed for months (and even years) but we can say with certainty that this year’s targets in the 6th and 7th round were not important enough to Shanahan, Bates and Sundquist to warrant missing Thomas. Remember that these guys work for a long time (and with a very talented scouting team) to determine what value each of these players has to our team. Because they did trade up, we can assume that their targets in those later rounds must not have been super-value pickups (as rated by their team of scouts).
The question about next year’s draft pick is another story; However, it still holds considerable value as a potential pick and giving up draft picks is always painful.

2. What will the team have to pay Thomas?
This one is a bit easier as we’ve heard from Shanahan that Thomas’ contact will be easy on the team’s cap and even tighter on issues off-the-field. It will, for example, include paying back his signing bonus if he doesn’t comply with the leagues drug policy.
This is a considerable safety net for the Broncos going forward. There is no way they would have talked a player without these past issues into this kind of agreement, so that benefits us.

3. What kind of player will Thomas be for the Broncos?
Of course this question is ridiculous to ask on the eve of the draft, but this will be the most important element in the long-term equation. If Thomas plays like his pre-trouble scouting report predicts and he becomes a Pro Bowl caliber tackle, then we all start talking about how we got the steal of the decade. However, if Thomas never becomes a starter or has continuing issues with drugs and curfews, Shanahan and company will hear about it all the way through next year’s draft.

That said, I have to say my first impression of Thomas in his post-draft interview was positive. I personally think he will grow into a leader on our defensive line… Then again, I’ve always been a ‘glass half-full’ kinda guy.