Daily Links — Thumb Injury Affecting Miller

I wish he could explain everyone else looking horrible! I Blame it on the ugly Christmas sweaters they wore on the plane!
” You have to look good to play good!”

Lol same difference just in another way of saying it. At the end of the day we can agree we looked horrible sat!

Someone needs to write an article that John Fox reads regarding the counter-intuitive need for Tebow to get green-light on first-down high-percentage passes.

On first down its less likely he’ll see zone-reads where DE’s drop into coverages (since no one expects Fox to have him throw until he absolutely has to).  Its also less likely that Derrick Johnson will spy him (as it will be on third-down when Tamba Hali will not be hesitating as much as the last game when the zone-read had him tentative).

Its so friggin’ obvious but all Fox’s caveman-mind can think of is: “INT’s for TD’s will assassinate this season” so I must repeat what worked against KC the last time.”

But the real choice is this.  We must complete 10 passes-or-more to win this game against Orton and the Chiefs.  If they mostly come on third-and-long, the chances of them being INT’s or stripped sacks for fumbles are much higher.

But letting him throw high-percentage passes on first-down– as Elway did to Sharpe and Griffith even when Terrell Davis was the Michael Jordan of the NFL in ’97-99– is the only way we can win this kind of game (where points will be at a premium).

We don’t have that kind of rushing attack despite the Tebow-inflated statistics this year.  Terrell and company could run it on pitches and cut-backs even when teams were geared up to stop it.

But Shanahan still knew enough to keep the Safeties from cheating up and clogging rushing lanes and passing windows on the WR’s (and he had throws to Sharpe, Chamberlain, Clark and Carswell).

Buffalo and N.E. succeeded because they had us guessing run-or-pass, yet Fox ignores the roaming Safety factor almost as grievously as McDummy did (who thought TE’s are only there for signaling runs by having two exclusive blockers like Quinn and Dan Gronkowski in the game).

I thought there was hope when Tebow was allowed to throw when its easiest– i.e. on FIRST-DOWN– on the first Broncos drive of the second-half at Buffalo.  What resulted were three critical and long-overdue passes to the TE’s that opposing teams barely have to worry about (and a quick TD resulted).  Proof positive.

But just like Shanahan would rarely blitz when the game was close– even though it succeeded when he did– Fox reverted to form after that drive and Buffalo knew what was coming.

Stop the run on first and second down and unshackle the pass-rushers to pin their ears back on third-down (with Derrick Johnson dropping into a shallow spy-zone in case Tebow leaks out through the pocket).  Heck, that’s how Denver’s defense likes to thrive as well (since we can stop the run when we know its coming and let loose Von on third-down).

But all Fox seems to think about is “the less passing, the less chance Tebow has to blow the game.”

And that’s coaching not-to-lose instead of coaching-to-win. 

Tim has his best chance to keep the defense honest and get us in second-and-shorts if he can drop back and utilize some play-action to freeze the LB’s.   But that doesn’t mean the run must always set up the pass.  As Mike McCarthy, Bill Parcells, Bill Walsh, Bill Belicheck and many other coaches know, it can mean the pass sets up the run too.

And when teams aren’t concerned about Tim running for the first-down on 3rd-and-seven, he can drop back and still get yardage if his primary reads are covered on early-downs (when its less likely that he’ll be spied as the Safeties and LB’s will have their backs to him scurrying around to make sure no lone TD to Decker happens on their watch as at KC).

If we do the Sammy Winder on first and second-down for 3 yards a carry and expect Tebow to be John Elway on third-down, we are making a huuuuuge mistake.  Let him throw short to Rosario, Fells, Larsen, Green or– here’s a news-flash– howzabout a dump-off to the RB’s???

Since Moreno’s injury at Miami– after two brilliant planned screens when Tebow dumped it off at the last minute– the RB screen has been non-existent (even though we are wasting Jeremiah Johnson’s dazzling speed and open-field moves).

In fact, the shovel pass to Johnson worked against the Jets tough defense for 8 yards.  But we never saw that again as well.  I’ll take a safe play like that any time where second-and-two will open up the playbook and maybe even permit a double-reverse where Demaryius gets the ball in his hands again.

So defenses know that our runs are going between the tackles and that Ball and McGahee aren’t fast enough to be elusive in the open-field (even if we set the edge).

These short throws won’t work on third-and-long (which is mostly  the only time that John Fox/Reeves grudgingly has McCoy call a pass play).  But they are high-percentage throws that will keep the Safeties from clogging the box (and our running game will thrive if they are more than a momentary gimmick).

McCoy may be suffering from what McDaniels did after the Ravens showed the limitations of our dink-and-dunk 6-0 start.  He wants so bad for the good fortune that resulted from ultra-conservative play-calling to continue.  But you cannot keep going back to that well and act as though we can ignore the first dictate of football.

If Dennis Allen would prefer opponents to run up the middle on first and second down before being forced to pass on third, why would our offense play into KC’s hands the same way…. by making their defense that simple to execute?????

Indecision is the crux of football (which is why New Orleans has teams guessing wrong and Green Bay and New England too).  But they have depth, better passing and many targets to worry defenses about.

We no longer have Gaffney, Lloyd or a functional TE.  But we have a wild-card.  When Tim Tebow drops back to throw on first-down, he has a better chance to run for big yardage in that look than in a zone-read option (which is more clogged and less open-field).  But that only works when teams are convinced its a pass-play and, like at the Jets, he can run for daylight after finding a lane in the front four.

Once we have teams on their heels and a nice lead, I’m all for running out the clock and running it down their throats.  But coaching scared is what led Denver to collapse so many late-season’s under Shanahan (when his desire to win the game on offense, counter-intuitively ended up losing it on his predictable zone-heavy, passive cover-two looks that hoped for unforced QB errors to rescue us instead of manning-up and pressuring QB’s to hurry their throws).   Teams took what we gave them and scored the go-ahead points with mere seconds remaining (even though a busted blitz giving up a TD still would have left Denver more time to mount another drive).

Its why so many mediocre QB’s had career days against Shanahan’s fast-starting, hold-on-for-dear-life “prevent” strategies.  And the football God’s– or simple logic– dictates that chances taken earlier pay off better than chances taken in desperation (when the whole world knows its coming).

Like an onside-kick to open the second-half, you have to roll the dice and do the unpredictable.  Otherwise, we will have wasted the season’s promise– and a chance to beat a hobbled Pittsburgh at home– out of the stubborn belief that knocking our head against a wall will finaly dislodge those bricks.

Go around the wall, Coach Fox. Tebow’s chances are substantially better throwing on first-down (and we deserve to see him in some non-desperate situations if this is the last game of his first season as a starter).

If it succeeds– and the RB’s and TE’s are involved– your sacrosanct rushing attack will thrive as a result (as defenses won’t know what’s coming).  Ask Dennis Allen how important that is.

Then we will have defenses guessing again (which is what sparked this season’s renaissance to begin with).  If Tebow misses those passes and the strategy fails, at least you can know in your heart that you allowed us the best chance to win (instead of counting on another last-second miracle in the form of a missed FG, a fumble, or an INT like Sanchez or Ponder threw to keep the magic going).

And Miller’s injury couldn’t have come at a worse time.  We need him at 100%.