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Published on 10/01/2009 at Thu Oct 01 13:00.
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Outsiders Perspective: Dallas Cowboys

Posted Thu Oct 1st by

For those who want a more in-depth look at the numbers that drive the NFL, we strongly recommend Football Outsiders. As part of our weekly scouting reports, we’ll be taking a look at DVOA rankings to gain some perspective on the Broncos‘ upcoming opponent.

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Dallas Cowboys

Passing Offense: 34.7% (11th)
Rushing Offense: 61.3% (1st)
Overall: 41.6% (2nd)
What it means: Only the New Orleans Saints can boast a more dynamic offense than the Cowboys’, and no one is running as effectively as Dallas. For some perspective, consider that the Broncos are ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing (traditional yard-based rankings here). That’s pretty good, but the Cowboys rank first, and they got there with 21 less rush attempts. That pretty much says it all.

It’s fair to say the revamped Mike Nolan defense has yet to face a challenge like this. Dallas’ offensive line, running backs (even without Felix Jones), and quarterback are all significantly better than anything they’ve faced to date. They’ve found success in the ground game running both inside and outside and haven’t slowed down despite injuries. Stopping the run will be the first priority; so far, no one in the NFL has quite figured out how to do it.

Passing Defense: 30.4% (24th)
Rushing Defense: -0.7% (20th)
Overall: 17.5% (23rd)
What it means: Recall that in defensive DVOA ratings, negative numbers are better (the numbers represent the success of the opposing offenses). Heading into their Week 3 game against the Carolina Panthers, the Cowboys had yet to tally a sack or takeaway, and their subpar defensive rankings reflect this. Teams have been able to throw comfortably against the ‘boys, while they’ve been very average against the run.

Enter Kyle Orton. This is the Broncos’ QB’s first best chance to lead the team, win the game and step out of the role of Game Manager. The Broncos won’t be able to rely on their defense alone to win this game; the defense has allowed an average of 5.3 points per game, but there’s just no way they’ll hold Dallas to under six points. I’d be surprised if they held them under 16 (the season total thus far).

Luckily, scoring points shouldn’t be too hard, and if Orton continues to play smart football, he won’t have to step too far out of that Game Manager role. Combined with the strong running game of Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter, the Broncos shouldn’t have any trouble putting points on the board.

Special Teams: 1.9% (10th)
Compared to the Broncos’ 29th rank, this certainly indicates that the Cowboys have an advantage in the special teams department. Frankly, Denver’s special teams have been fantastic in coverage while anemic in the return game. The S/T DVOA doesn’t quite reflect this. Don’t expect the Broncos to bust a long return anytime soon, but don’t expect them to surrender one, either.

Team Overall: 25.9% (11th)
The Broncos are 3rd overall with a 47.6% DVOA thanks mostly to their top-rated defense. As FO mentions (several times), these numbers are not Defense-Adjusted yet, so technically just “VOA.” As a result, FO concludes that Denver probably doesn’t have that large of an advantage, and I agree. The Cowboys will present quite a challenge, but unlike the impression I get from FO, I don’t believe all of these rankings are smoke and mirrors. Denver is a quality ball club, and they’ll put up a fight.

  • stuckinraiderland

    Wow, that there is a lot of what my smart friends call “numbers.” Don't know what to do with them all myself, usually; glad Kyle organized them well. Nice piece.
    My more serious comment: stats, at this point, share the same flaw as any other type of analysis: we're just not comparing apples to apples. The Cowboys put together their numbers against a different set of teams than we did, and when we're only three games in, there isn't a large enough sample size for that all to start to average out. Bottom line: numbers don't mean anything more than any other analysis at this point in the season because it's too early.
    Then again, any talk about the Broncos is my kind of talk. And I hope Kyle keeps this piece coming. It'll be more meaningful as the season progresses and the “sample size” for the statistics grows larger.

  • Bill

    To sum this all up… The Cowboys are obviously the best opponent Denver has faced to date. If the Broncos can win this game it will give them some credibility to their record. If they get blown out, then it just shows they have only beaten weak opponents and that they are what we thought they were.

  • Nick_Shadow

    I get where the numbers are coming from for Dallas, but I watched that game and drew some conclusions;
    1. The Panthers were horrible on offense and couldn't stay on the field in the second half, thus their defense was gassed and Dallas pounded the ball, but even at that there were a lot of cheap yards on missed tackles and missed assignments. To be fair they were exhausted. Watching the game reminder me sooo much of the Denver defense last year.
    2. Romo isn't looking sharp, and for the most part I didn't think the Girls were that crisp overall, I was thinking that if the Girls play that way against Denver (barring a collapse by Broncs) Dallas loses.

    I usually don't make predictions, but I am sticking my neck out, 27-17 Denver. Both Denver RB's have a big day and the D shuts down Whitten (sp)

    Nick

  • TheTroglodyte

    ***WARNING*** Spoiler ahead. Do not read if you do not want to know the outcome of Sunday's game!

    I played the Cowboys on All-Madden Franchise mode today as I do every Thursday. Even wore the orange jerseys. Going into todays game I was 3 – 0. The Bronco's are also 3 – 0.

    See the connection there? Obviously my play directly affects Sunday's. Not to worry. We won 27 – 10. The Cowboys didn't even score a touchdown until the final 2 minutes.

    Look for Brian Dawkins to have a big day as he had 2 picks and Bailey had 1. Knowshon also broke off a couple of long runs and racked up 88 on the ground as well as another 30 through the air.

  • WhidbeyBronco

    I'm excited to see how we match up… I predicted a loss but I believe we can put up a fight. Thank God for our O-line! If Orton gets pressured much I see a long day…

  • TheTroglodyte

    If we can put constant pressure on Romo we will win the game. Our secondary is too experienced this year and Romo will force the ball causing at least a couple of turnovers. It would be nice to see Ayers have a big game Sunday as I expect them to try to double Doom often.

  • Mark

    You guys are fans. Clearly the oddsmakers see this more clearly than you. Your guys are home dogs. If the Cowboys play to their potential than they will win this ball game. The game will be close, but they win.
    By the way, I am a Cowboys fan so I understand your optimism.

  • The_Ink

    I am a little tired of ppl beating on us because our opponents are 3-6….the dallas cowboys opponents are 3-6…the giants that they played are 3-0 and the other two are 0-3….including Tampa Bay which put up 21 against dallas….remember tho that tampa bay just switched qbs b/c of bad qb play…..we shut down the 2 crappy teams we played and didn't allow a touchdown b/c good teams do stuff like that….dallas couldn't stop tb from scoring….at least 2 of our opponents won a game…plus oakland almost beat sd…so they say we need to prove ourselves ( i think the same…we need to play the better teams and I believe we are ready) I believe dallas needs to prove themselves more…..and what is the talk about dallas's defense they are ranked 26th in the league up against our number 1 defense….big difference….denver is the better team

  • The_Ink

    must suck to know that your team beat two 0-3 teams and your defense is ranked 26th…something is wrong

  • steeplebomb

    Against our Oline? not gonna happen. The Cowboys are like the chargers; they've got some big names on Defense but they've been playing like shit this season. That's all that matters.

  • steeplebomb

    Since when have the oddsmakers been perfect at predicting outcomes? Too many variables to be sure either way. The key words are “play to their potential.” Tell me, which Tony Romo is going to show up on Sunday? Would you be willing to bet anything on it? I certainly wouldn't. Its Tony Romo. Being over confident of a team that relies on him is stupid money.

  • DenversFinest

    This game's not going to be close. Doom, Reid and Dawk are going to eat up NOMO. He is highly overated, their D is mediocre, and their two best rbs are hurt or not 100%. To win this game we must win the line of scrimage. It can be done. Look for Romo to get picked twice and sacked 3 times. I can smell 4-0. GO BRONCOS!!! How do we earn respect…..TAKE IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

  • TheTroglodyte

    The Odds Makers are not there to predict who is going to win you giant boo boo ass. They are there to make money. They set the stat lines accordingly. This is why when too many people are paying on one side, the odds change.

  • Dan

    Not a cake walk…Harris is dinged-up, Hamilton may be out with a strained hamsting, and Smith's sore ankle may impair our nickel defense set. Dallas has very good players, and we need to be healthy to compete with them. If we get down early we are in big trouble. The good news is we are flat out better coached, and that mattered in the Giants game and it should matter in this one. In addition, the Dallas O-line is old and fat…We should get some good sacks.

  • TheTroglodyte

    The Odds Makers are not there to predict who is going to win you giant boo boo ass. They are there to make money. They set the stat lines accordingly. This is why when too many people are paying on one side, the odds change.

  • Dan

    Not a cake walk…Harris is dinged-up, Hamilton may be out with a strained hamsting, and Smith's sore ankle may impair our nickel defense set. Dallas has very good players, and we need to be healthy to compete with them. If we get down early we are in big trouble. The good news is we are flat out better coached, and that mattered in the Giants game and it should matter in this one. In addition, the Dallas O-line is old and fat…We should get some good sacks.