Kyle Orton: Better than advertised

can someone please explain dyar to me? I read the articles and can't seem to make head or tails of it. It will probably be “oh, of course” moment for me when I understand the acronyms, but I would really like to know how something like this is figured out.

Thanks

Nice stats, shines a whole new light on Orton. And I love the vide, that guy does a great job, keep posting them.

If he can keep it up then I don't think we should be worried about his plays. But you also have to consider there have been 3 or 4 of the passes that could have been picked off. I'm holding my head high for KO just as long as he doesn't sit on my face.

Being a Purdue fan, I remember very clearly the early reaction by San Diego (and even many New Orleans) fans towards Drew Brees. The general consensus was Brees would be lucky to ever become a competent backup in the NFL. And just like their clueless audiences, the “experts” in the media served up analysis and columns ad nauseum to support that conclusion.

Um, right. Oops.

Of course, since Kyle Orton is also an alumnus of Purdue, I have followed his NFL career with great interest as well. And ever since he was drafted by the Bears (and subsequently traded to the Broncos) I have heard the same monotonous nonsense from fans and media types who have no clue about Orton's capabilities. None. Zip.

Like how Orton has a “weak” arm, is indecisive, inaccurate, and throws too many interceptions – check his stats at Purdue and the NFL combine result. In fact, when he was a senior (named preseason 3rd team AA), he was named named “Most Fearless Quarterback” in Big Ten by The Sporting News, “Most Accurate Passer, Strongest Arm and Coolest in the Clutch in Big Ten” by Lindy's and selected “Best Passing QB in Big Ten” by Street & Smith's. In fact, in Orton's first five games of his senior season – prior to being injured – he had thrown 16 TD's without a single interception and was the leading candidate for the Heisman at the time. His college career interception rate was 2.43%.

And then he went to the Bears – who not only have no idea how the throw the ball in their offense but insisted Orton simply hand it off and “manage” games. And despite having no pass blocking nor any reliable receivers, Orton ended up throwing for almost 3000 yards last season in a totally inept offense.

Now that he is in Denver, he finally has an offense suited to his capabilities and a coach who understands what his potential is. Yet Denver fans seem to believe you can install a new coaching staff, a new QB, and a completely new playbook and have the offense humming on all cylinders after merely a few games.

Um, right.

Anyone who has actually PLAYED the game of football at any competitive level knows you do not make those kind of drastic changes and expect the offense to ramp up to speed immediately. Even Elway has publicly claimed this will be a work in progress. Keep in mind that even with Brees running the NFL's best offense last year, it still took him an entire season to get his timing and synch down with former Pro Bowl tight end Jeremy Shockey. Yet fans expect Orton to get his timing down with EVERYONE on the offense – playmakers and linemen – in only a few games???

How silly is that?

My advice to Denver fans is this – give Orton and his teammates time. It will pay off. Instead of looking at his (and the offense's) stats each week, try looking at the TREND. Are they getting better? Are the receivers dropping fewer passes? Are there fewer blown routes? Are the blocking assignments getting better? Are blitzes being picked up better? Is the decision making improving? Are the drives getting longer?

Or, you can sit back, pop another beer, p!ss & whine and look like an idiot when Orton & company start clicking.

Just a thought.

Ok, so I don't know exactly how DYAR is calculated, but I can tell you that it's a comparison against the 'replacement' quarterback, which means your average second string scrub QB who obviously will not win games for you. The higher the DYAR value the better, and it's supposed to roughly correlate to how many more yards, in a game, that QB will throw than your replacement scrub. As a measure I think that description is fairly useless.

What it really measures is success rate. Successful plays mean getting at least 40% of the yards needed on 1st down, 60% of the yards needed on 2nd down, and 100% of the yards needed on 3rd or 4th down. Successful plays keep the drive moving. So a first down pass that nets 3 yards is considered a failure. Any 3rd down pass that does not result in a 1st down is considered a failure. Certain plays, such as kneel downs and spikes, are removed from the statistical calculation.

Then more stuff is added or subtracted for things like ints, fumbles, sacks. The system does not care who made the mistake on a failed play; because that's pretty subjective, so I think that if it hits Marshall in the hands and he drops it, the play is still a failure.

The important thing, to me, isn't the actual DYAR but comparing the DYAR from one to another. And keep in mind that while the QB gets the rating, the ratings really aren't separated from the coaching, O-line and the receiving core. They all had to do their jobs in order for a play to be a success.

And. I'm not a fan of Orton. I never have been, and we must understand that 2 games is a very small sample size, so the statistics are not accurate. That said, I am shocked to find Orton and our offense in the top 10. That's enough to give me pause and make me re-evaluate my stance on Orton.

Maybe he can be a winner.

But it's like I said about McDaniels from the very beginning. Nothing cures doubts about him like winning. So far we've got 2 wins. One of them scary and one of them downright convincing. A couple more convincing wins and I might start drinking some kool-aid myself.

BUT, What does it stand for (DWAR)?

Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement

DYAR and DPAR are the ONLY ways to measure how well a qb is playing by statistical analysis.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com invented the two statistics and you can read all about how they are calculated there.

well smart ass there is one good thing about orten he can take the team down the field but he gets in the red zones and has been choking neting us field goals and secondly most of the passes over 25 yards are because of the recievers breaking tackles or the week 1 catch of brandon stokley which was great but all the running stokley did gave orten over 200 yards passing

That is the way it is with every QB in the NFL…a WR makes half or more of the yards for them….and it has been two games which neither prove KO to be good or bad.

“Thrown by design”…LMFAO

Again, weeks 4-12 and I am hoping I am wrong, because the Orton-Aide must be Crack-licious.

Idiots like you are more than happy to discredit Orton when his receivers do something good – like YAC or picking up tipped passes – but conveniently ignore when those same receivers drop a half dozen perfectly thrown passes that should have been caught for big yards.

You sound just like the morons over in SD who thought Brees was a bust.

Dream on, pal.

Your question about why Orton was playing behind Grossman is valid. However, if you think about it, the reason is plain – Grossman is no longer in football. Forget about Orton – what does that say about Lovie & Co's ability to evaluate QB talent?

I have a hell of a lot more faith in Orton's ability than I do Lovie Smith's ability to find & develop good QB's.

Orton will be fine. Like Elway said (who I remember personally torching my Purdue team back in college), it will take some time. It may take a summer to learn and memorize an NFL playbook but it takes a LOT of practice developing timing and synchronization with a completely new set of receivers. For example, if all your receivers have been reading and reacting to blitz packages one way and your new QB is used to a different way, you have the makings of what looks like a horrible pass to someone not even there – all because of timing.

And most defenses, aware that Orton is in a new system and trying to develop communication & understanding with his receivers, are going to pressure him as much as possible to force him into mistakes. That's what coaches do. The good thing is that it puts Orton and his receivers on the fast track to developing their timing and synch – although admittedly with invariable mistakes in the process.

If fans like you can be patient and grasp the level of complexity that has to be learned and mastered with new coaches, a new QB, a new team, a new offensive system and playbook, I assure you it will pay off. Again, the key is how much the team progresses from week to week. Of course, there will be ups and downs as opponents throw new defensive wrinkles at the offense but over time, they will get MUCH better and more effective.

Let's see how Orton is doing relative to Cutler at the end of the season.

You might be pleasantly surprised.

What you fail to realize is that rookie QB's – WAY more often than not – take even more time to develop timing and coordination with receivers.

Orton has the tools. Remember, the receivers, running backs, and linemen are all learning the new system just like Orton. If you go back and review the tapes, you will see there are just as many mistakes being made by the other players on offense as are being made by Orton – likely even more.

What many fans don't seem to take the time to understand – is that to complete a forward pass, several people have to do their job properly – NOT just the QB! If the QB reads blitz and the hot receiver does not and runs an out instead of a slant because of the misread, you have an interception for a TD. Orton's fault? No. The receiver's fault.

So many people presume that everyone on the offense always performs without an error. So when there is an incomplete pass or a bad series, people normally think the QB must be the problem. Of course, if a mistake happens a second time, then it IS the QB's fault for not correcting the player who made it the first time. If it happens a third time, it's the offensive coordinator's fault for not getting it worked out.

Drafting new players – no matter how high in the draft – rarely makes a positive impact the next season. Check your history.

um lets all keep in persective that we won on a fluke catch and then beat a Browns team that hasnt scored an offensive TD since……………………………….yes exactly. from Dallas on will show us what he is really made. of.

Kerry I hate you. J/K… No really I hate you

Steep,

Thanks for the note, lets see how this all unfolds. I stuck my neck out
early in training camp days and said in a post that by mid season, the
Broncos would be a very difficult team to deal with, and then I ducked,
caught a lot of flack for that.

I am not so much a cool-aid drinker; I just love to watch the game and try
to form my opinions after some thought. I think what people get caught up
in is fantasy football and watching the highlight reels of other teams/QBs.
I see a lot of “what the hell was that supposed to be” passes from all of
them. Think all of Peyton's attempts are a thing of beauty?

Again, thanks for the note,

Nick

Here's all I know….my bears made a huge mistake, tht is why i m not a bears fan anymore…I mean they acted and came out and said that the main problem was Orton, the QB who led his team to put up 40-some points on one of the best defenses out there in Minnesota…the prob was/is the depth on D for the bears…and it's going to be much worse as the season goes on…trust me…As for the Broncos, my new fave team, Orton is good, give him time…Do you think it's an accident that the D is better? They went out in the offseason made some acquisitions. Also, look at how little they are out on the field, compared to last year…Look at the Indy D's from a few years ago, they had the same prob, because Peyton and the Offense would score sooo quickly, the D was considered bad…but once they started controlling the clock, that D got “better”…