Jay Cutler is Falling Back to Earth

Jay Cutler took the league by storm during the first three weeks of the 2008 NFL season. Leading the Denver Broncos to a perfect 3-0 record, Cutler was poised, well-protected, and downright deadly. The Broncos offense scored over 30 points each game, and Cutler started the season with a monster 110.6 quarterback rating.

Fast forward three weeks, and things aren’t looking quite as pretty for Cutler. Take a look:

Jay Cutler Comp Att Pct Yds Avg TD Int Rate Record First 3 games 73 108 67.6 914 8.5 8 2 110.6 3-0 Last 3 games 73 120 60.8 780 6.5 4 3 80.5 1-2 Total 146 228 64.0 1,694 7.4 12 5 94.8 4-2

Cutler’s tallying less impressive stats across the board, barely edging out the 80-rating mark in the past three weeks. Not coincidentally, the Broncos went 1-2 in that stretch. He’s still playing well enough overall, but there’s obviously something different between Cutler Weeks 1-3 and Cutler Weeks 4-6. So what happened to throw the NFL’s Three-Week Golden Boy off course?

Attitude

It’s no secret that you have to have your wits about you to play at the NFL level. The need for self-confidence comes with the territory, along with the need for thick skin. (Don’t believe me? Go ask Vince Young).

Self-confidence is fine, but let’s be honest — Cutler takes that self-confidence to another level. He’s downright cocky. He’s not shouting at rival fans in their own stadium like a certain other AFC West douche bag quarterback, but he’s not afraid to get in an opponent’s face, either. This cockiness polarizes a lot of Broncos fans — some love it, others downright hate it — but no one can question the kid’s sheer mountain of talent.

I, for one, have no problem with this type of attitude as long as it doesn’t affect his preparation or focus on the football field. But that’s the problem – so far with Cutler, I’m not sure that’s the case.

Everyone heard his comments last week in his interview with The Sporting News. His comments about having a “stronger arm” than John Elway made a lot of headlines, but those didn’t nearly bother me as much as his comments about the AFC West and the playoffs:

Cutler on whether there is a team in the AFC with a better chance to reach the Super Bowl than Denver:
“I don’t think so. With Tom (Brady) out, I think there are three, four, five teams that have a legitimate shot of getting there.”

Cutler on how surprised he’ll be if the Broncos don’t win the AFC West:
“At this point, pretty surprised. Very surprised, actually.”

One week later, I wonder if Cutler is already changing his tune about the state of affairs in the AFC West. It’s a 16-game season for a reason.

The comments themselves don’t bother me as much as the timing – here comes the big, bad Jacksonville Jaguars to town. They’ve had no trouble coming into Denver and having their way with the Broncos, whether it be the 1996 Playoffs or just last year. And there’s Denver Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler, talking about Super Bowls and AFC West Championships.

Mental Toughness

It goes hand-in-hand with attitude, but I’m not sure Cutler has the mental toughness to return to that three-week level on a near-consistent basis this season. Cutler can handle the blows just fine – going through half an NFL season with untreated Type 1 Diabetes helps you develop that aforementioned thick skin – but can #6 handle the praise?

Is it a coincidence that the Broncos began struggling just as the national media really began heaping praise? After Week 3, USA Today declared that Cutler was “playing like (the) best QB in (the) NFL right now,” pubbing him as “a front-runner in early-season MVP conversations.” The Sporting News described Cutler as “the NFL’s most gifted young passer” after the Broncos bounced back with a win in Week 5 against Tampa. Mark Kizla of the Denver Post, always oh-so-hard to impress, even suggested “from New York to San Diego, there’s not a tougher gunslinger in the AFC than Cutler.”

I realize I’m singling out Cutler here, so let’s be fair and call out the Broncos as a team. It’s true that the Broncos’ young passer responded with his worst season performances to date, but he’s by no means the only guy responsible for the two games in the loss column. Plenty of guys had sub-par games against Kansas City and Jacksonville. Were the Broncos too busy listening to everybody tell them how good they were to snap out of it and focus on the football game ahead? How else do you explain a Week 4 loss to the horribly inferior Kansas City Chiefs?

Call them underdogs and these Broncos will gnash and claw their way to the top. Put them on a pedestal and watch them collapse under their own big heads.

It’s the other side of mental toughness Jay Cutler, and the rest of the Broncos, appear to lack – that ability to shrug off praise and continue to focus on the game ahead.

To be fair, it’s horribly difficult. Just look at the 16-0, then 18-1 New England Patriots of 2007. Their team was focused enough to put in the effort to a perfect record in the regular season, only to come out shaky for The Big Game.

Something tells me that Jacksonville left a bad taste in Cutler’s mouth (how could it not?), and these Broncos will come out swinging against the Patriots. They need to. 5-2 is a hell of a lot better than 4-3.

Even if they can get their collective head on straight, the Broncos will still need some help to get this explosive offense back on track.

Injuries

Eddie Royal. Tony Scheffler. Brandon Stokley. All missed all or most of Sunday’s game with ankle, groin, and head injuries respectively, and all are questionable at this point for a return to the field Monday.

The lack of weapons in the second half obviously hurt Cutler. The Broncos were forced to punt in three of their final four possessions. The injuries left Jay-C with few pass-catching options: a constantly-swarmed Brandon Marshall, injury-hampered Darrell Jackson, fresh-off-the-street Glenn Martinez, and a handful of tight ends.

If there’s an area of New England’s team that can be exposed, it’s the defensive backfield. The Broncos have a much, much better opportunity to do serious damage against the Pats with those three playmakers in the lineup. The New England corner backs simply can’t keep up.

With time in the pocket (this offensive line has been outstanding), Cutler still has the tools to pick apart this secondary. Give him the weapons and you’ll see his production return.

Call this my “tough love” request to Jay Cutler to shut his mouth and play football. I love #6 to death, but looking ahead at the playoffs and comparing yourself to Hall of Famers only sets you up for failure. Let’s worry about X’s and O’s before accolades.

Let’s maintain focus, Cutler. Let’s maintain focus, Broncos. Don’t get ahead of ourselves.  Take it one game at a time. Ignore the pundits, the spread, and whatever everyone is saying on paper (or the Web) – none of that matters. Just worry about each play one at a time, Cutler, and you’ll go far.

Yes, even as far as the Super Bowl.  But you didn’t hear it from me.