Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots celebrates with teammate Rob Gronkowski #87 of the New England Patriots after a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills in the second half at Gillette Stadium on January 1, 2012 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

Breaking down the Denver Broncos‘ second playoff opponent in six years from the Football Outsiders‘ perspective: the New England Patriots.

Recall that lower (negative) percentages are good on defense, bad on offense and special teams. DVOA Primer

Overall DVOA: 22.5% (4th)

Again the Denver Broncos are facing a juggernaut of statistical efficiency, this time against the New England Patriots. Last week they knocked off the AFC’s top-ranked team in terms of DVOA; this week they face the conference’s second-best in Bill Belichick‘s Patriots. The main difference between the Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers is that, unlike Pittsburgh, New England isn’t an intimidating force in all facets of play. Just most of them. Let’s break it down.

Overall Offense: 36.8% (3rd)
Pass Offense: 60.7% (2nd)
Run Offense: 17.1% (4th)

The Patriots’ offense is built on the strength of their dynamic tight end duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, who have posed a match-up nightmare for every defense they’ve faced. To no one’s surprise, Gronkowski is the league’s top-rated tight end in terms of DYAR, while Hernandez is a mightily impressive seventh. The Broncos did a remarkable job covering Gronkowski in Week 15 — it was the All-Pro’s lowest yardage total of the season when Hernandez was on the field as well (53 yards). The problem is that the Broncos sold the farm covering Gronk and left Hernandez to tally a then-career high 129 yards. The Broncos will need to find more balance in their defense this time around, likely by employing Chris Harris more judiciously to that end.

The Patriots are more than a passing team, as their fourth-ranked rushing efficiency illustrates, so the Broncos can’t really devote every linebacker to pressing Gronk at the line again, especially with Deion Branch back this time around. There are just too many weapons in New England for the Broncos to feel confident in limiting the Patriots to a low score. They’ll need to score points to match. Luckily…..

Overall Defense: 17.9% (30th)
Pass Defense: 24.1% (28th)
Run Defense: 8.8% (28th)

Sterling Moore #29 of the New England Patriots celebrates his touchdown, which followed his interception, against the Buffalo Bills in the second half at Gillette Stadium on January 1, 2012 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

The defense of the Patriots is suspect — worse than the Broncos’ in all three main categories, and even the most basic numbers support this weakness. The Patriots held their opponent to less than 16 points only once all season, and that was against the Kansas City Chiefs under Tyler Palko in his first start.

But still, the Patriots pride themselves in not giving up the big play, something on which the Broncos clearly relied to win against Pittsburgh. The defense may have issues on all levels, but it’ll be hard to get the type of big plays the Broncos enjoyed against the Steelers if the Patriots remain in their Cover-3 look.

That’s why you can expect the Broncos to give the Patriots a healthy dose of running the football again this week. But just like in the regular season, it’ll all be for naught if the Broncos surrender turnovers. And if Willis McGahee goes down again.

Special Teams: 3.7% (5th)

Typical well-coached output from Bill Belichick. The Patriots are consistently one of the league’s bests in special teams, but their kicker and punter each have strong legs to support the Patriots’ fine coverage.

Conclusion

Don’t be fooled by the Patriots’ low-ranked defense and think this is a should-win game. The defense may be surrendering 21.4 points per game, but the team is forcing 32.1 points on average against its opponents. The Broncos only put up more than that total twice all season.

It will take a combination of defensive turnovers and offensive aggression to beat the Patriots this Saturday, things we haven’t seen a lot of this season with the Broncos. But we just saw Tim Tebow transform into an NFL playoffs record-breaking quarterback with his arm last week. The pressure is on Brady on company; it’s time for the Broncos to wing it. Anything is possible.

Speaking of, tomorrow we’ll break down how the Broncos rank in FO’s eyes. (Maybe. We said the same thing last week, didn’t quite get to it).

Running back Isaac Redman #33 of the Pittsburgh Steelers is hit by defensive lineman Jabaal Sheard #97 of the Cleveland Browns at Cleveland Browns Stadium on January 1, 2012 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Matt Sullivan/Getty Images)

Breaking down the Denver Broncos‘ first playoff opponent in six years from the Football Outsiders‘ perspective: the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Recall that lower (negative) percentages are good on defense, bad on offense and special teams. DVOA Primer

Overall DVOA: 23.7% (2nd)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are one of the most overall efficient teams in the NFL, second only to the 15-1 Green Bay Packers. There is not a glaring weakness across the board (they rank in the top half of the NFL in all seven categories we’ll break down in this post), and most parts of that board can be considered a strength. They have a strong, mobile quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger; they have perennial Defensive MVP candidate Troy Polamalu, and they have been to the big game the hard way before (playoffs on the road). Winning this game is a tall task for the Broncos.

Overall Offense: 16.3% (6th)
Pass Offense: 30.5% (7th)
Run Offense: 10.2% (7th)
Rashard Mendenhall is out. We can expect a big dropoff in the Steelers’ traditional run-first offense, right?

Wrong. Isaac Redman had a stronger yards per carry (4.4) than Mendenhall (4.1), and his DYAR and Success Rate were decent as well (Success Rate was better, landing Redman in the top five). In other words, Redman consistently got the yards the Steelers needed. He may not have broken free for huge gains, but he moved the chains.

However, Ben Roethlisberger‘s lingering ankle injury does appear to be affecting his play. He maintained his spot in the Top 10 DYAR, but his weekly passer ratings dropped from 117.3 and 129.6 in Weeks 13 and 14 (the latter was the week of his injury) to 52.3 and 70.0 in the two games he has played since. There’s hope that the Broncos can pressure Roethlisberger enough to force him into mistakes — though few take sacks and win like Big Ben.

Overall Defense: -5.8% (7th)
Pass Defense: -7.3% (3rd)
Run Defense: -3.9% (15th)
They were already a stout defense, but the Steelers’ getting LB LaMarr Woodley back for this game is nothing short of huge. Woodley had two sacks in four straight weeks in the playoffs following the 2008 season, setting an NFL record.

It is true, though, that the Steelers’ strength (pass) and weakness (run) on defense play to the Broncos’ offense well. If the Broncos already struggle passing, it makes sense for them to stick to their top-ranked ground game, since it’s the weakest overall area of this Steelers team.

Special Teams: 1.6% (9th)

Wide receiver/returner Antonio Brown is, simply put, a beast, and a deserving recipient of the AFC’s Returner Pro Bowl slot. Brown ranks second in the AFC in kickoff return average (27.7 yards) and fourth in punt return average (10.8), with one punt return TD. In total, he has gained 2,048 all-purpose yards for the Steelers. He was voted Steelers MVP by his teammates.

Tomorrow we’ll break down how the Broncos rank.

Donovan McNabb #5 of the Philadelphia Eagles drops back to pass against the San Francisco 49ers at Lincoln Financial Field on December 20, 2009 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Nick Laham/Getty Images)

Breaking down the Denver Broncos‘ opponent from the Football Outsiders‘ perspective. This week: Philadelphia.

Recall that lower (negative) percentages are good on defense, bad on offense and special teams.

We hope you all had a very merry Christmas, and we wish you a continued happy holidays! The schedule makers certainly didn’t give the Broncos anything to be merry about this season, as the Broncos’ Week 16 opponent boasts the league’s top overall DVOA. Yes, the Philadelphia Eagles are the league’s most statistically efficient team. This will be no easy task for the up-and-down Broncos.

Pass Offense: 28.1% (12th)
Run Offense: 15.1 (4th)
This is one case where the FO/DVOA numbers don’t really tell the whole story. The Eagles’ passing offense keys off the big play, and the Eagles have five more plays (20) of 40 yards or more than any other team in the league. Wide receiver DeSean Jackson broke an NFL record for such plays, with he and quarterback Donovan McNabb connecting on nine touchdowns of 50 yards or more. So the numbers to take from this are the rushing DVOA — the Eagles’ 4th-ranked attack suggest the Eagles can get the job done on the ground when needed. What’s more, they expect to get dynamic starting running back Brian Westbrook back against the Broncos. The Eagles are a dangerous, explosive, and efficient offense.

Pass Defense: -16.4 (4th)
Run Defense: -6.2 (15th)
The Eagles don’t have the hard-hitting, consistent presence of Brian Dawkins in the back of their secondary, but their pass defense has still done a good job behind Asante Samuel and company. The Eagles are blitz-happy and don’t hesitate to send two defenders on an A gap blitz, which can be a protection nightmare. This is an area in which the Broncos have struggled this season, so Casey Wiegmann and company can expect to be tested. Their rush defense isn’t the strength of the team, but they still rank in the top half of the league.

Special Teams: 6.4% (3rd)
Jackson is a dangerous returner to boot, and the Eagles boast one of the top special teams units in the league. Mitch Berger needs to have a consistent outing this game; one bad punt to Jackson could really turn the tide in Philly’s favor.

Peyton Manning #18 of the Indianapolis Colts is pictured during the NFL game against the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium on December 6, 2009 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Breaking down each week’s Broncos‘ opponent from the Football Outsiders‘ perspective. This week: Indianapolis.

Recall that lower (negative) percentages are good on defense, bad on offense and special teams.

Pass Offense: 49.0% (4th)
Rush Offense: 4.4% (12th)
The Colts may have the lowest rushing yardage total in the league, but their rush DVOA confirms what we expected all along: this is by design, and less a statement about their ability to run the ball and more a statement about their desire to. They are a pass-first team but are efficient at running the football when they want to be (see: Joseph Addai‘s nine touchdowns). This offensive strategy has led them to the league lead in passing yards.

Pass Defense: -4.7% (8th)
Rush Defense: -2.6% (19th)
The Colts boast the league’s best pass-rushing combination at defensive end out of a 4-3 front in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, who combine for 20 sacks this season. Meanwhile, the Broncos just put right tackle Ryan Harris on injured reserve. One of the clear differences in the Broncos’ performances in their eight wins against their four losses was their ability to protect the passer. Making sure Kyle Orton has enough time to execute the offense will be paramount, and the Broncos stood a better chance against Freeney and Mathis with Clady and Harris. Luckily, Mathis has yet to practice this week, being held out with a quad injury.

The Colts can be run on a bit, but they’re very fast behind the defensive front.

Special Teams: -0.3% (20th)
Coincidentally, the Colts and Broncos are tied in special teams DVOA.

Eli Manning #10 of the the New York Giants hands off to team mate Brandon Jacobs #27 against the Atlanta Falcons on November 22, 2009 at Giants Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

Breaking down each week’s Broncos‘ opponent from the Football Outsiders‘ perspective. Recall that lower (negative) percentages are good on defense, bad on offense and special teams.

Pass Offense: 33.6% (10th)
Rush Offense: 0.3% (15th)
The Giants are known for their punishing running game, but their passing game is underrated, and they will try to attack the Broncos in the air. WR Steve Smith entered Week 11 as the league’s 5th-ranked receiver, and Mario Manningham exploded for big, game-changing gains while the Falcons sold the farm to stop Smith. The league’s other Steve Smith — who is making a case to be the Steve Smith this season — still broke free for a 51 yard bomb (he was held to 28 yards otherwise). QB Eli Manning is up-and-down, but the Broncos can’t afford to allow him to have an up day, or it will be a long day.

The Giants won’t have RB Ahmad Bradshaw, and Brandon Jacobs has only been averaging around three yards per carry of late, but the Broncos haven’t been stopping anyone’s ground game lately. Jacobs has been recovering from a right leg injury but wasn’t even listed on the team’s injury report. New York’s offensive line is one of the best in the league; Denver’s front seven needs to be ready.

Pass Defense: -2.9% (10th)
Rush Defense: -2.5% (19th)
The Giants’ defense has been a bit banged up, but is hitting its stride at the right time. Middle linebacker Antonio Pierce has been ruled out with bulging disc in his neck (an injury that came totally by surprise — freaky), but the G-Men were happy to get cornerback Aaron Ross, linebacker Michael Boley and defensive tackle Chris Canty back in the last few weeks.

The Giants are fast and physical up front. They may have the best four-man defensive line in football, and the memory that the Broncos nearly had defensive end Justin Tuck still keeps this Broncos fan up nights. They were able to hold Atlanta to three yards per carry despite missing Pierce (Michael Turner did not play), and Matt Ryan‘s success against them in the fourth quarter had a lot more to do with Matt Ryan than Giants defensive woes. They got after the second-year quarterback.

Special Teams: -3.0% (28th)
The Broncos will get a long look at one of their own, Domenik Hixon, who serves as the Giants’ primary return man. Hixon’s career in Denver was cut short far too soon after a nasty hit in Buffalo in 2007 left him sidelined and ultimately waived.

We know some of you are fans of Football Outsiders, as are we, so we’ll be taking a look at the smarter stats behind the Broncos‘ opponent each week to gain some perspective on what to expect — an Outsider’s Perspective.

Insanely quick DVOA 101: Recall that on offense and special teams, the higher the percentage the better. On defense, the lower (more negative) the percentage the better.

Steelers Rush Offense: -0.3% (15th)
Broncos Rush Defense: -25.1% (1st)
Despite having their worst performance of the season, the Broncos improved from 2nd to 1st in the league rush defense DVOA. The turnaround of this rush defense has truly been remarkable, and even after an “off week,” the Broncos are tops in the league. They’ll need to continue that pace as they face the Steelers’ Rashard Mendenhall, who is averaging over 5 yards per carry and has won the starting role over RB Willie Parker.

Steelers Pass Offense: 50.5% (4th)
Broncos Pass Defense: -11.1% (6th)
Against Baltimore, the Broncos’ pass rush got to Joe Flacco but didn’t get him down. Against Pittsburgh they’ll need to finish the deed, and Ben Roethlisberger is even harder to take down. For the first time all season, injuries to the Broncos defense might play a role. Starting DE Ryan McBean was held out of practice Wednesday and Thursday, while DBs Josh Barrett, Jack Williams and David Bruton were also listed on the Thursday’s injury report.

Broncos Rush Offense: -2.3% (18th)
Steelers Rush Defense: -14.0% (10th)
Little known fact: RB Knowshon Moreno leads the league in productive carries, i.e. fewest percentage of rushes for negative yardage (5.5% on 6 of 109 carries). He hasn’t been breaking long runs, though, which partially explains the Broncos’ relatively low rushing ranking this season.

Broncos Pass Offense: 42.9% (7th)
Steelers Pass Defense: 9.4% (16th)
Sunday was a humbling experience for the Broncos’ passing attack, and we’re sure Dick LeBeau will try to mirror the success Baltimore had with aggressive blitzing schemes. Every facet of Denver’s passing game could have played better last week — QB Kyle Orton needs to improve his pocket presence, the O-Line needs to bounce back and show last week was just a fluke for one of the league’s best units, and the WR’s need to do Orton more favors (particularly Brandon Marshall, who was targeted early and often, had a big inexcusable drop on third down, and had far too happy feet for our tastes. Get upfield Brandon!).

Steelers Special Teams: -6.8% (31st)
Broncos Special Teams: -5.8% (28th)
Both the Broncos and Steelers have allowed two kickoff returns for touchdowns in the past two games. The fact that the Broncos still rank this low despite Eddie Royal‘s phenomenal Monday Night three weeks ago tells you all you need to know about Denver’s special teams.

Every week we take a look at the smarter stats that drive the NFL, focusing on the Broncos‘ upcoming matchup. This week it’s the Baltimore Ravens. Enjoy.

(We’re also tweaking the format a bit starting this week to discuss both the Broncos and their opponent.)

Broncos Rush Offense: -4.0% (18th)
Ravens Rush Defense: -18.6% (6th)
Analysis: A lot has been made of the vaunted Ravens recently giving up back-to-back 100-yard rushers for the first time since 2005, but the numbers suggest their rush defense still ranks among the tops in the league. Meanwhile, the Broncos’ ground game isn’t what it used to be. Blame the change in running scheme, blame injuries to Correll Buckhalter, or blame the playcalling, but the ground game isn’t the same. It’s not bad (and again, the Broncos are 6-0, so who’s complaining?), but it’s been one of the few disappointments this season. Unless the bye week gave Denver a rushing game reawakening, the Broncos’ best chances to score points may be through the air.

Broncos Pass Offense: 51.9% (5th)
Ravens Pass Defense: 4.9% (14th)
Analysis: DVOA is all about efficiency — getting the necessary yards to convert first downs while applying bonuses for plays that go beyond the needed yards — and the Kyle Orton-led pass attack has been magnificent in this area. Every week, Josh McDaniels and OC Mike McCoy have been able to find mismatches with a seemingly different weapon on the offense. In Week 6 it was Tony Scheffler. In weeks prior it was Brandon Marshall. Meanwhile, the Ravens pass defense has struggled. The usual sack-happy defense that likes to confuse opponents with multiple looks has been a bit tamed without Rex Ryan, and they have 14.0 sacks on the season (16th in the league). While Ed Reed is dangerous, the Broncos should be able to pick apart the rest of the secondary with good protection, and hell, maybe even focus on Domonique Foxworth a bit.

Ravens Rush Offense: 25.3% (3rd)
Broncos Rush Defense: -27.1% (2nd)
Analysis: Strength vs. strength. Some question whether the Broncos have been tested by a rush offense this potent yet, but the Cowboys came into Denver boasting the league’s top rushing unit, and the Broncos handled them. NT Ronald Fields, who missed Wednesday with a hamstring injury, has been a key part of the team’s turnaround. He returned to practice Thursday.

Ravens Pass Offense: 34.8% (11th)
Broncos Pass Defense: -15.1% (6th)
Analysis: QB Joe Flacco has been putting on a show, and Baltimore is wacko for Flacco. His pass protection has been somewhat of an issue during their three-game slide, and the Ravens hope the return of T Jared Gaither will help them in this area. It’s unclear whether Gaither or Michael Oher will line up at LT (Oher, traditionally the starting RT, filled in the left side in Gaither’s absence), but the Broncos are known to move around Elvis Dumervil anyway. Both should be ready to face the league’s sack-leader, no matter where they line up.

These are two good teams facing off this Sunday. Of all these rankings, only one — the Broncos’ rush offense — ranks in the second half of the league, and then just barely. We’re talking about two solid, complete, well-rounded teams.

San Diego Chargers

Passing Offense: 31.1% (11th)
Rushing Offense: -17.1% (25th)
Overall: 5.2% (16th)
Analysis: The Chargers certainly have the ability to be explosive at times, but the numbers suggest they’re not consistent (in fact, the Broncos outrank them significantly in all offensive DVOA categories). Each of their games in 2009 have been a microcosm of their past few seasons: a slow start, finding themselves in a deep hole, followed by a . It also explains why the Chargers have rushed for fewer yards than other team in the league. As part of their bye week break, expect the Chargers to come out throwing Monday. An early lead would go a long way to heal what ails them.

Passing Defense: 24.8% (22nd)
Rushing Defense: 22.1% (32nd)
Overall: 23.3% (29th)
Analysis: Do any of those numbers scare you? The Chargers currently have the least efficient defense in the AFC West by DVOA — less than the Chiefs, less than the Raiders, and far worse than the fourth-ranked Broncos. The injury to Jamal Williams has been devastating, and former Pro Bowlers Antonio Cromartie and Shawne Merriman have been invisible.

That being said, the Chargers hope to enter this game healthy, and hope to remove the “soft”-ness their GM has plagued them since before the bye. Merriman has been practicing all week, a good sign after he’s been limited often in 2009, and San Diego hopes he can return to his playmaking form. They’re shaking things up, releasing starting safety Clinton Hart and adding DT Ian Johnson.

Those moves need to pay them immediate dividends, as the Broncos’ running attack will be boosted by the return of Correll Buckhalter. This could prove problematic for the Chargers defense, as he has been one of the NFL’s best rushers in 2009 (averaging over seven yards per carry). If the Chargers can limit Buckhalter, it will mark a remarkable turnaround in a short time span and go a long way toward them winning this game.

Special Teams: 5.0% (6th)
Analysis: The Broncos’ special teams has been a major disappointment, while the Chargers’ unit has been one of the team’s bright spots. Darren Sproles is always dangerous.

Team Overall: -13.1% (23rd)
Analysis: The Broncos outrank the Chargers in every category except Special Teams, but the Chargers have had the Broncos’ number the past several seasons, winning 5 of 6 by an average of 25.0 points. This is the Broncos’ annual toughest game of the year. The stats are worth the look, but for this game, you can throw a lot of them out the window. The Chargers are going to “bring it,” and the Broncos need to match.

New England Patriots

Passing Offense: 44.0% (6th)
Rushing Offense: 13.0% (9th)
Overall: 25.5% (6th)
Analysis: This Patriots offense isn’t making anyone forget the record-setting unit circa 2007, but the Pats have been getting the job done since their Week 1 struggles. Tom Brady, in particular, has really come on of late. Consider Brady’s response to a sack and forced fumble that resulted in a Baltimore Ravens TD in Week 4. Brady calmly led his Pats on a 74-yard drive touchdown drive in which he went 4-of-4, capped by a 14-yard score to Randy Moss on third down. The drive gave Moss his first touchdown of the season and sent a crystal clear message to the rest of the NFL: Tom Brady is back.

Perhaps somewhat because of their passing game, the Patriots have always been underrated on the ground. This year’s rushing unit has been a mixed bag, but free agent acquisition Fred Taylor has looked very strong this season. They’re not sticking to Taylor, though (update: Taylor has been ruled out following ankle surgery) — in true running-back-by-committee form, the Patriots ran five different running backs in Week 4 against Baltimore. No Pats RB rushed more than seven times, and none rushed fewer than five. This after Taylor cracked the century mark on 21 carries in Week 3.

Passing Defense: 17.4% (18th)
Rushing Defense: -5.8% (17th)
Overall: 7.9% (18th)
Analysis: As chaotic as the personnel turnover on the Broncos defense has been over the past few seasons, the Patriots have been just as fluid. This Patriots defense has been getting younger and younger as draft picks continue to start in spots veterans once filled, and the transition hasn’t always been smooth. Bill Belichick‘s hybrid 4-3/3-4 defense, renowned for years around the league, looks very average in 2009, and dare I say: very beatable.

They’ve been disciplined, though, as one would expect. The Jets‘ Jerricho Cotchery had a 45-yard reception in Week 2; other than that, New England hasn’t allowed a passing play over 29 yards. After #1 WR Derrick Mason caught six passes on Baltimore’s first drive, they adjusted their coverage, bracketed Mason between a corner and safety, and held Mason to one catch the rest of the game.

Against the run, though, Baltimore RB Ray Rice‘s stats last week suggest they’re vulnerable. Outside of his big 50-yard run, Rice churned up 53 yards on 10 carries for a 5.3 rushing average against the Patriots (9.4 avg. with the 50-yarder included).

Special Teams: -1.7% (15th)
Both teams are below the league average in S/T DVOA. Special teams shouldn’t be too big a factor, although the Broncos have been excellent in opposing field position. The Broncos need to keep an eye on trick plays; the Pats ran a fake field goal in Week 4 that was negated by an illegal formation.

Team Overall: 15.9% (10th)
The defense adjustments kicked in this week, and (as expected) the Broncos were knocked down a few notches. But not too far — they fell from 3rd to 7th with an overall 36.5% rating. The fact that these teams’ rankings are so close, even after only four weeks of data, suggests that another close game is in the works.

Common sense suggests the same thing. Like last week against Dallas, the Broncos are about to pit their strength against the strength of their opponent, and the offense will need to do just enough against an average defense to keep the team in the game.