Posted Sun Apr 17th by Ian Henson
Twenty-six hundred, that’s what the Denver Broncos second overall pick in the first round is worth on the NFL draft value chart.
That’s a lot of points.
Probably more points than anyone is willing to give up in order for the Broncos to trade back. Usually the gap in compensation is made up for by a player, but that’s impossible this year.
There are rumors that Denver is looking to trade back (who in the NFL isn’t?), certain fans hope that they will in order to pick up more picks in the middle rounds. The Broncos currently have seven picks in the draft, but do not have a fourth or a fifth round selection as of now.
The Washington Redskins (tenth overall), Tennessee Titans (eighth overall) and Arizona Cardinals (fifth overall) are all suspected to want to move up. I’ll throw the Cincinnati Bengals (fourth overall) in there for good measure, because they may be without Carson Palmer in 2011, which would put them in desperate need for a quarterback. Thus if either the Redskins, Titans or Cardinals were looking to jump ahead of the Bengals to choose a quarterback they would need to do it by either trading picks with the Broncos or the Buffalo Bills (third overall).
Here’s a breakdown of the likelihood of any type of trade.
The Buffalo Bills
I believe that the Bills (justifiably so) are happy with their current quarterback situation having Ryan Fitzpatrick as their signal caller. However, if Cam Newton were to somehow slip by the Carolina Panthers (first overall), it may just turn into a game of highest bidder for the Broncos pick and the Bills have the most to offer. I am going to hold off on that tangent for a moment, but let it be noted that the Bills have the most to offer without dipping into their 2012 draft. Buffalo can swap their first round pick with Denver, swap picks with the Broncos in the second and offer their fourth round and the points would just tip a bit in the Bills favor.
Likelihood of trade with Denver: Unlikely, the Bills aren’t looking to get into the quarterback sweepstakes in the first round. At least not this high.
The Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are in an interesting position, a quarterback who swears he will never play for the team again and an owner that doesn’t believe him. If the Bengals are to stand a chance at all next they will need a new quarterback, however head coach Marvin Lewis doesn’t seem to care. Playing devil’s advocate I can see Cincinnati not having a quarterback as a sort of job protection for Lewis. No one will be able to blame the coach if they’re starting games being led by either Dan LeFevour or Jordan Palmer and losing. Then again owner Mike Brown calls the shots, not Lewis; that being said Brown doesn’t believe that the team needs a quarterback. However, Brown could be bluffing to keep teams feeling safe that the Bengals will not be selecting a quarterback in the top five thus freezing a team like Arizona from moving up to swap places with Denver.
Likelihood of trade with Denver: Unless there’s a change in the winds I don’t see Cincinnati moving from their fourth selection in the first round. If rumors spread quickly on draft day that a team is trying to move up to number two then it may be in the Bengals best interests to get in on the trade game or face a scenario where Jake Locker is the next best available quarterback at number four.
The Washington Redskins
This trade may seem like the one with the most possibility given the history between John Elway and Mike Shanahan and with Donovan McNabb all but out of Washington D.C. the Redskins need a quarterback. Even Kyle Orton can’t save Rex Grossman this time, the Shanahan’s need a quarterback for the future and even one for the now… Redskins just don’t have the beans though, with the tenth overall selection, no third or fourth round draft pick and an inability to trade players I don’t see it being worth it at all for the Broncos to even entertain an offer. Oh and what do Marcell Dareus, Von Miller and Patrick Peterson all have in common? None of them will be available at the tenth pick in the draft.
Likelihood of trade with Denver: Highly unlikely, writers and commentators are merely drawing upon this due to the link between Elway and Shanahan. When it comes down to it though, it would be ill advised for the Broncos to pull the trigger on anything involving the number ten overall pick. Shanahan could throw the kitchen sink at them though (and Broncos fans know the man has no loyalty to future draft picks).
The Tennessee Titans
How gone is Vince Young in Tennessee? We don’t know, because Young was given a pink slip under the Jeff Fisher regime, Fisher is gone and even Chris Johnson seems to think that Young may still have a place with the Titans. This alone makes the possibilities of a trade seem iffy at best, there isn’t even a guarantee that the Titans view quarterback as their most pressing need. With Kenny Britt now possibly in trouble, the fact that Tennessee took a chance on Randy Moss late last season and the fact that since 2005 the Titans are picking an average of two receivers per draft there is even a possibility that they may stick with number eight and pick up a receiver. Especially if Nick Fairley is gone earlier than when they select at number eight.
Likelihood of trade with Denver: Another highly unlikely trade partner, the Titans could give up their first, second and third for the Broncos first round and it still wouldn’t compensate the 2,600 points that Denver’s second overall pick is worth. The most likely scenario is that Tennessee will actually trade back, not up in the first round.
The Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is in desperate need of a quarterback, but are they in fact so desperate that they can’t afford to go with a rookie quarterback in 2011? I will lean towards yes. The Cardinals will be the first team in line for Marc Bulger and can become a high bidder in the Kevin Kolb sweepstakes when trades are allowed; Larry Fitzgerald is just too good of a receiver and way too expensive to be dealing with such a young quarterback for the next few seasons.
Likelihood of trade with Denver: Unlikely, though Arizona may pick up a quarterback in this years draft, but I don’t see it happening in the first round. Maybe early in the second or third. With the talent they have at wide receiver going with a rookie quarterback out of anything other than necessity may be more than their offensive morale can handle.
“Our philosophy is we’re willing to listen to anybody, but the value has got to be there,” Elway has been quoted.
So where does this leave Denver? Exactly where they are right now. It’s been said that no one in the NFL ever plans to be drafting high the next season, that being the case, I say enjoy the opportunity while it’s there. It’s very difficult to mess up the second overall pick in the draft (especially when you’re not targeting a quarterback). The last time the Broncos had an opportunity to pick this high was in 1991, they drafted Mike Croel (who went on to win Defensive Rookie of the Year).