SPEAK UP: Select at two or trade down?

2004:
Chris Gamble, CB
Keary Colbert, WR
Travelle Wharton, Tackle
Drew Carter, WR
Sean Tufts, LB
Michael Gaines, TE

2005:
Thomas Davis, LB
Eric Shelton, RB
Evan Mathis, Guard
Atiyyah Ellison, DT
Stefan LeFors, QB
Adam Seward, LB
Geoff Hangartner, Center
Ben Emanuel, CB
Jovan Haye, DE
Joe Berger, Tackle

2006:
DeAngelo Williams, RB
Richard Marshall, CB
James Anderson, LB
Rashad Butler, Tackle
Nate Salley, Safety
Jeff King, TE
Will Montgomery, Guard
Stanley McClover, DE

Just wanted to make sure you hadn't enrolled at Le Cordon Bleu.

Are you saying or assuming that Fox had the weight to pull the trigger on all these? I'd think it would be a mix. Keep the number two unless you can move down and still stay in the top 10, but to be honest, how many times do you have a shot to pick a guy like Petersen? 6-1, 222 lbs, sub 4.4? That is one scary m-effer coming at you. I think we stay at two and grab Petersen if he's there.

I like the Miller option, Tebow's best friend is going to be a hands TE, but I did read a while back that if Kyle Rudolph is available with their second 2nd rounder (weird phrase) that they might grab him. Tough call, I say let him pass and grab a starting ILB or NT.

Lots of rb's I see, as well.

um there is something alot of you are forgetting here. our running game was TERRIBLE because of a lousy RB and a lousy offensive line. everyone is talking about defense this and defense that, while yes we need defense, John Fox LOVES his run game and more of his top picks have been O-line and RB's. Jordan Gross, Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have all had big impacts. so for the sake of NOT ignoring the offense, ill post some offensive players who could and should be had. Guys like our own Colorado Buffalo OT Nate Solder who is a top 15-20 consideration. 6'8, 315 pounds and we need a RT with Harris being injury Prone. also lets not forget Mark Ingram, the Heisman trophy winner. better speed and power then Moreno and Fox isnt scared to have 2 first round RB's on the roster.

are these guys worthy of top 5 consideration? hell no. but a trade down could be considered here for a number of reasons. ill list those reasons here:

Teams like the Redskins, Cardinals and Vikings need a QB. right now Blaine Gabbert is the top QB prospect this year (dont know why though being he is out of the Gimmick Missouri offense) so one of those teams may fall in love enough to move for him.

some team is gonna roll the dice and want Cam Newton. my bet is the 49ers so perhaps they move for him. highly unlikely but someone will want him and perhaps we trade down and someone like the 49ers get him. personally i think Shanny is dumb enough to move up for him so keep an eye on that come draft day.

i like Patrick Peterson too. rare talent in a combination of size and speed. i wouldnt cry one bit of he was selected BUT we have had an elite HOF CB for 7 years and it hasnt made our defense great. so while i like Peterson, id prefer a trade down. Failey is a one year wonder as is DeQuan Bowers. (although dont be surprised if we select Bowers because Fox will look at him from an athletic standpoint and see Julius Peppers)

here is my scenario:

trade down to number 7-12 and get another second with our trade down if possible. select Marcel Dareus at 12 (if available) he is a beast and can play 4-3 DT or DE. preferably DT.

now with this scenario it gives us three 2nd round picks plus Orton could be dealt also. so we take our pick of the Dolphins and Orton and trade it to move to the top of the second round (perhaps Carolinas first pick in the second round because they need a QB) and we select DT Phil Taylor out of Baylor. now alot of guys say Taylor is suited to play NT on the 3-4 but lasy i checked a huge DT named Haynesworth dominated the 4-3 so Taylor could also. everybody i watched the senior bowl and Taylor pushed O-linemen around like bitches. im telling you this guy could be a great fit for us.

then our second pick in the second round could be used for CB Jimmy Smith out of Colorado or OT Joseph Barksdale out of LSU.

then our next pick in the 2nd round (as per my scenario) could be used for RB Mikel Leshoure. this guy is a monster. 6-0, 230 pounds with great speed. i believe he would IMMEDIATELY take Knowshons spot. (like that would be hard)

well thats my scenario. of course its unlikely but id love to see it.

I'd rather see Austin as a later pick, depending on his interviews. Austin and Dareus in the middle would be great. Stop drafting RBs. We need defense. DeAngelo Williams is available in free agency. Trade down and take Dareus and with three second rounders take ILB Martez Wilson, CB Jimmy Smith and DT Marvin Austin.

Assumptions:

– Broncos let Bailey will be let go (too much contract $$$ for age)
– #2 pick can guarantee too much money (10 million/year) for CB “potential”
– Need defensive pass rush – Dumervil will help, but more needed
– Need to collapse pocket “in” on elite pocket passers – DT (expecting 4-3)
– Orton can be traded for a 3rd round pick(minimum)
– Someone in packs #5-10 will trade up to our #2.

General 2011 Draft/FA Strategy:

– Instead of hoping for SD CB at #2, sign Nambdi (Raiders) for ~10/year. Lots of money they don't want to spend, but it is spent on a true SD CB in his prime, not 10 million on draft prospect at the #2 spot.

– Trade the #2 pick down into pick range #5-10. This saves a couple million/year by not have the #2 pick money we used on Nambdi. Hopefully, for the trade into 5-10 range, we pickup a 2nd round pick (minimum 2nd, could be 2nd/3rd). Conservatively, we now have 3 2nd round picks.

– Trade Orton for 3rd round (possible 2nd), but let's stay conservative. At this point, we have a SD CB to replace Bailey. We have a 1st round pick in #5-10 range. We now also have 3 2nd round picks and a 3rd round pick at the top of the draft.

– With CB taken care of, we can focus on inside/outside pass rush and run stopping. Assuming top 5 prospects are gone, go after best available with 1st pick. Get Von Miller! If gone, get Darius, etc.

– Reasoning behind the trade down: Either one of those guys gives us more of what we don't have and need. Von might not be ideal for 4-3, but could play a 4-3 line-backer with heavy blitz responsibilities or potentially play in the 4-3 as a Freeney type prospect. What of Ayers? Ayers was a 4-3 DT at Tennesee and is a great bull-rusher. Watch his film. He is so big at OLB, he isn't as hard to get in front of, but he pushes tackles back near the QB on every play. Put Ayers inside at 4-3 DT, slide VON Miller in at 4-3 DE. Dumervil will be back at the other 4-3 DT spot. Now, we have a bit undersized bookend speed rushers in the 4-3. We have a powerful bull-rusher at DT (more natural). For the 2nd DT spot int he 4-3, we use our current NT at the other spot to give us size. As all teams do, we substitute with backups to keep them fresh.

– Another thought: Because of Von's size and athletic ability and the fact that Demervil and Ayers are all trained in the 3-4, we now have defensive pieces that don't have to come off the field when offenses game plan to tire us out. Our guys can be moved in and out 4-3 and 3-4 alignments with zone-blitz potential because of our players flexibility. Few teams have a tackle (ayers) that can drop back to cover a tight-end or RB out of the backfield, while bringing a pass-rush from elsewhere on individual plays.

– 2nd Round: Get the best available 4-3 DT or pass rushing 4-3 end depending on which player we got int the 1st round (miller/darius) to assist in collapsing the pocket (with Ayers). We have veterans that will help there, but we need more youth and we need it for cheaper 2nd round money. We now have Nambdi at CB, Von Miller or Darius, and pick up whatever we didn't get in the 1st round pick in the 1st 2nd round pick. We still have 2 2nd round picks left.

– 2nd 2nd round pick: Pick the best available tackle or running back.

– 3rd 2nd round pick: Pick the best available tackle assuming we didn't get one in the 1st 2 2nd round picks. If already picked a tackle, pick best tight-end available.

– 3rd round (Orton trade): Pick best available running-back or pass catching tight-end (assuming tackle has been taken).

– 4th round: Assuming tackle/RB have been addressed, pick best available on the defense again (safety, LB, CB, DL).

– 5th, 6th, 7th: More depth at any position (QB that has fallen too far, OL, RB, LB, Safety, CB)

Yes, the assumptions are many, but not impossible. A lot hinges on Fox's ability to lure Nambdi with promises that we will strengthen the DL (pass-rush) so he isn't left out on a corner for 5-7 seconds every play. Then we have to gauge teams in 5-10 with a dire need for a top 5 pick to trade with us. If we get both of these going, everything else will fall into place as far as the strategy goes.

Assumptions:

– Broncos let Bailey will be let go (too much contract $$$ for age)
– #2 pick can guarantee too much money (10 million/year) for CB “potential”
– Need defensive pass rush – Dumervil will help, but more needed
– Need to collapse pocket “in” on elite pocket passers – DT (expecting 4-3)
– Orton can be traded for a 3rd round pick(minimum)
– Someone in packs #5-10 will trade up to our #2.

General 2011 Draft/FA Strategy:

– Instead of hoping for SD CB at #2, sign Nambdi (Raiders) for ~10/year. Lots of money they don't want to spend, but it is spent on a true SD CB in his prime, not 10 million on draft prospect at the #2 spot.

– Trade the #2 pick down into pick range #5-10. This saves a couple million/year by not have the #2 pick money we used on Nambdi. Hopefully, for the trade into 5-10 range, we pickup a 2nd round pick (minimum 2nd, could be 2nd/3rd). Conservatively, we now have 3 2nd round picks.

– Trade Orton for 3rd round (possible 2nd), but let's stay conservative. At this point, we have a SD CB to replace Bailey. We have a 1st round pick in #5-10 range. We now also have 3 2nd round picks and a 3rd round pick at the top of the draft.

– With CB taken care of, we can focus on inside/outside pass rush and run stopping. Assuming top 5 prospects are gone, go after best available with 1st pick. Get Von Miller! If gone, get Darius, etc.

– Reasoning behind the trade down: Either one of those guys gives us more of what we don't have and need. Von might not be ideal for 4-3, but could play a 4-3 line-backer with heavy blitz responsibilities or potentially play in the 4-3 as a Freeney type prospect. What of Ayers? Ayers was a 4-3 DT at Tennesee and is a great bull-rusher. Watch his film. He is so big at OLB, he isn't as hard to get in front of, but he pushes tackles back near the QB on every play. Put Ayers inside at 4-3 DT, slide VON Miller in at 4-3 DE. Dumervil will be back at the other 4-3 DT spot. Now, we have a bit undersized bookend speed rushers in the 4-3. We have a powerful bull-rusher at DT (more natural). For the 2nd DT spot int he 4-3, we use our current NT at the other spot to give us size. As all teams do, we substitute with backups to keep them fresh.

– Another thought: Because of Von's size and athletic ability and the fact that Demervil and Ayers are all trained in the 3-4, we now have defensive pieces that don't have to come off the field when offenses game plan to tire us out. Our guys can be moved in and out 4-3 and 3-4 alignments with zone-blitz potential because of our players flexibility. Few teams have a tackle (ayers) that can drop back to cover a tight-end or RB out of the backfield, while bringing a pass-rush from elsewhere on individual plays.

– 2nd Round: Get the best available 4-3 DT or pass rushing 4-3 end depending on which player we got int the 1st round (miller/darius) to assist in collapsing the pocket (with Ayers). We have veterans that will help there, but we need more youth and we need it for cheaper 2nd round money. We now have Nambdi at CB, Von Miller or Darius, and pick up whatever we didn't get in the 1st round pick in the 1st 2nd round pick. We still have 2 2nd round picks left.

– 2nd 2nd round pick: Pick the best available tackle or running back.

– 3rd 2nd round pick: Pick the best available tackle assuming we didn't get one in the 1st 2 2nd round picks. If already picked a tackle, pick best tight-end available.

– 3rd round (Orton trade): Pick best available running-back or pass catching tight-end (assuming tackle has been taken).

– 4th round: Assuming tackle/RB have been addressed, pick best available on the defense again (safety, LB, CB, DL).

– 5th, 6th, 7th: More depth at any position (QB that has fallen too far, OL, RB, LB, Safety, CB)

Yes, the assumptions are many, but not impossible. A lot hinges on Fox's ability to lure Nambdi with promises that we will strengthen the DL (pass-rush) so he isn't left out on a corner for 5-7 seconds every play. Then we have to gauge teams in 5-10 with a dire need for a top 5 pick to trade with us. If we get both of these going, everything else will fall into place as far as the strategy goes.